George Soros On Investing and Speculation

George Soros is one of the most influential and successful speculators and investors of all time. Famous mostly for his one-billion-dollar day on Sept 16, 1992 when he broke the Bank of England, the controversial billionaire has left quite a good amount of wisdom for those wanting to follow in his footsteps.

Below are listed quotes related to the game of investing and speculation.

"I'm only rich because I know when I'm wrong...I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes."

"I very often used to get backaches due to the fact that I was wrong. Whenever you are wrong you have to fight or flight. When I make the decision, the backache goes away."

"Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux, and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected."

"The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around, and the bigger the upside."

"Misconceptions play a prominent role in my view of the world."

"The hardest thing to judge is what level of risk is safe."

"Taking this view, it is possible to see financial markets as a laboratory for testing hypotheses, albeit not strictly scientific ones. The truth is, successful investing is a kind of alchemy."

GBP/USD Uncertainty

GBP/USD has been having days of uncertainty and volatility. The bottom box is the overall weekly range where price was stuck within for several months, and the top yellow box is a close of the bottom blue box range.

Recently we have seen price break out of the symmetrical triangle to the upside where price then went into a descending channel. This week, price has had a strong push to the upside within this pair due to the US dollar weakness we have seen. This has lead price to show a break out to the upside.

As you can see in the chart we have a key resistance at the 1.30400 area, if price is to break this resistance then we could be looking for price to reach the area of 1.35450. It is worth watching to see whether price shows a break and retest of the 1.30400 area or a rejection.

Price is now firmly above the EMA's, this means if price continues bullish then the EMA's are likely to follow very quickly. Keep watching this pair to see how price reacts at the 1.30400 resistance.

Chart: GBP/USD D1

Germany 30 In Consolidation

Germany 30 price has been sideways for about 34 trading days. We have seen slight breaches above the 12825 resistance however price has failed every time to show the retest and continuation.

Price is being trapped by a small ascending trendline and the 12825 resistance. We have previously seen price show a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, however, the momentum for price to reach the fibonacci extensions has not been visible.

Price over the last week has come back to the ascending trendline and the 20EMA where price on Friday showed some buying pressure. Price is currently too close to the resistance to be taking a long position, so it would be best to remain patient and await the break and retest of the 12825 resistance or the ascending counter trendline. It is key to not get stuck within a trade in a range so wait for price to break and take a trade accordingly.

Char: DAX D1

USD/CAD Unsteady

Market participants are still waiting on the USD/CAD's price to show further clear directional movement. A further break and retest of the lower ascending trendline of the channel and 1.32650 support would lead to shorting opportunities.

On the other hand a break back above the most recent lower high would show a change in the daily market structure. This could spark renewed interest in the bull camp and drive the price higher.

Currently price is below all 3 EMA's and the 20 EMA is below the 50 EMA with the potential of crossing over the 200 EMA. Market sentiment is overall bearish in the USD/CAD unless traders and investors see the daily market structure change.

Over the last week price has not shown potential opportunities as price is still trading sideways. It is interesting to follow the pair into the week to see if price shows that break and retest we are looking for to go short or whether price does a U-turn from the lower channel support back to the upside.

Chart: USD/CAD D1

GBP/CAD Slowing Down

GBP/CAD's price over the last week has not shown any real momentum. Market participants were watching for price to show the potential of a retracement to the 1.70400 support turned resistance for a new lower high point and a shorting opportunity.

Over the last week price has pretty much ranged sideways with the candles being side by side. We are still watching this pair for price to reach the 1.70400 area for a rejection. If we see a rejection from this area it would also align with the 20EMA and the 200EMA.

We have recently seen the 20EMA cross over to the downside of the 200EMA with the 50EMA also being very close. If price does not make it as far as the 1.70400 resistance and shows a break of the current 1.66666 support, then a retest of the 1.66666 area would also warrant a shorting opportunity. This is a pair that is worth keeping a close eye on over the week.

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US Oil Bearish

The US Oil price had shown a break and retest of the 46.30 support turned resistance and is now showing bearish price action. Price was anticipated by market participants to reach out 0% fibonacci support as first target and the 42.60 support as second target. Today we can see price has reached the 42.60 support.

Currently, price sits at 42.67 and having in mind it reached the support, an upward momentum might occur that could drive the price to first bull target at 43.00. On the other hand, bears have the advantage here as price is now outside the trading channel and it might continue to trade in a downward motion.

If that is the case, the we might expect next target to be around the psychological 42.00 level. Below that, 41.60 is seen as next support.

Chart: US Oil D1

GBP/CAD Upside

GBP/CAD is showing a bullish push with today's candle currently looking to close as a bullish engulfing. If today's candle closes as a bullish engulfing we will be looking for price to show a retracement up to the 1.70400 resistance area highlighted in blue. It is advisable to stay away from this market until the 1.70400 area, as it is still looking shaky and unstable. It would be better to wait to see bearish price action at this area for a shorting opportunity.

If we are able to see a bearish rejection from the 1.70400 area then we will look for a short down to the 1.66666 support, with the second target being the next support at the 1.64000 area. This market is currently bearish, predominant sentiment remains bearish and it would take news heavily in favor of the Pound Sterling in order for market participants to go long this pair.

Chart: GBP/CAD D1

EUR/USD Hesitates

EUR/USD has been caught in a consolidation period as price is struggling to break out of the range bound trading between 1.1260 and 1.1120. It's interesting to observe that the pair has managed to stay inside the trading channel currently at the upper trendline.

The EUR/USD made a high of 1.1289 as it hinted that a break out of the channel was probable. However, USD bulls took control and pushed the price down to a low of 1.1115.

Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1155, slightly higher than the intraday low of 1.1140.

Major bear target is seen at the 200SMA at 1.08217 while major bull target is a break and a close above the resistance line at 1.13.

Chart: EUR/USD D1

USD/CAD Uncertain

USD/CAD price has been trading within the ascending channel for some time however, last weeks weekly close has closed strongly bearish. It is important to watch the daily timeframe for a potential break and retest over the next week. On the chart is used range height to mark support and resistance areas which work very nicely on this pair. If we do see price show a break and retest of the channel, this could lead price a lot further to the downside with our first weekly target being 1.28300.

On the other hand, a strong US dollar could create interest in the upside potential of the pair and drive price to levels around 1.35.

What's more important, however, is that we are now below the 200SMA, below the long term support line and in a period of a weakening US dollar. That combined could weigh down the chances in favor of a bearish move.

Chart: USD/CAD D1

AUD/JPY Close to Resistance

AUD/JPY is now trading at 83.62 as market participants are anticipating the reach of the short term resistance. Immediate resistance level is seen at 83.70. AUD/JPY bears might jump on the opportunity to short the pair for major target at 81.90.

What could spice things up is the anticipated FED press release on raising the interest rate from 1.00% to 1.25%. Market analysts are predicting that there would be a raise in order to calm the markets and introduce more stability into the US economy.

A depreciation of the US dollar usually bring volatility to the Japanese Yen. If this is the case here as well, then we might see the Yen appreciating, meaning that pairs like AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY will decrease in price.

The news are scheduled for 2PM EST.

Chart: AUD/JPY H4

USD/CAD at Support

The Canadian dollar has been rallying against all of its peers. This is most noticeable in the main currency pair - USD/CAD. The USD/CAD pair made a substantial depreciation from the highest high at 1.3793 to the fresh made lowest low of 1.3208.

It's important to notice that the level of 1.3215 acts as a medium term support and market participants can start to buy in at current levels which suggests that this time is a good opportunity to go long the pair.

On the other hand, USD bears might keep the pressure in the pair and break the support line with first target in the range between 1.3195-1.3180.

Today the FED will be speaking on the rate increase and the event will have an impact on all markets.

Chart: USD/CAD H4

GBP/CAD Turn in Trend

GBP/CAD price was trading at a key area around the 1.70400 support which aligns with the ascending trend line. However, CAD bulls reacted strongly to fundamentals and pushed the price below the trending line. The break of the ascending trend line led to further bearish movement and shorting opportunities.

Currently, the pair seems to have found some support and is now trading at 1.6869. The pair reached a low of 1.6794 just minutes ago and got backed up by the CAD bears who saw an opportunity to short the Canadian currency.

First GBP/CAD target to the upside is now seen at 1.6900. After that, we need to go to 1.7000 in order for the bullish trend to be confirmed.

Strong support is the 200SMA level at 1.6758.

Chart: GBP/CAD D1

GBP/CAD At Support

GBP/CAD price is at a key area of 1.7060 support which aligns with the ascending trend line. Price will soon need to break one way or the other. A break of the ascending trend line and 1.7050 support would lead to further bearish movement and shorting opportunities however, a rejection to the bullish side would lead to potential long opportunities on the break of the 1.75230 resistance area.

First support level is expected at 1.7050. Bulls are expected to react to that level and push the price North to potential first target at 1.7120. On the other hand, if that level is broken, then GBP bears would jump in shorting the pair to a major target level at the 200SMA currently sitting at 1.6761.

Having in mind the negative effect the elections had on the Sterling, it seems more likely that the support will be broken as the pair continues to the 200SMA.

Chart: GBP/CAD D1

EUR/NZD Bearish

EUR/NZD Daily timeframe. We have recently seen price within this pair show a break of the 1.57000 support area along with our ascending trendline. Price on the weekly timeframe has closed as a bearish candle, with a recent bearish engulfing rejection from the weekly 200EMA.

On Friday we saw price print a spinning top at the daily 200EMA which shows indecision, from this indecision we are looking for price to show a retest of the broken 1.57000 support turned resistance or the ascending trendline. A retest with bearish price action would warrant us to set a short market entry order with the overall short target being the next key support at 1.51400.

We have seen a recent daily lower low when price broke the 1.57000 support, a retest would act as a new lower high with the potential of price then running bearish for a new lower low. We may see price fluctuate with other lower highs and lower lows as price runs to our overall bear target at 1.51400. We are now watching the daily candle closes within this pair for a short market entry order, if the bearish price action arises at the retest.

Chart: EUR/NZD D1

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USD/CHF Consolidated

USD/CHF has been consolidating around lower line of the downtrend trading channel. The pair is now 0.9668 and has been gravitating between 0.9700 and 0.9600. USD/CHF was trading in the red for the second half of May going from 1.0100 to a low of 0.9613.

As it seems, market participants are waiting for fresh news to stir the market and hint a probable direction so they can make their decision and join the tidal wave.

Major bear target is seen at 0.9540 as the support of the medium term channel, while bulls eye the level of 0.99 as major target.

No news are scheduled from both sides until the end of the week so we might expect quiet market hours until this week's closing candle.

Chart: USD/CHF H4

UK Elections Today, June 8

I would like to remind you that today the UK is holding their General elections. This is an event that can cause unpredictable volatility which therefore suggests traders to refrain from taking any new positions until this event passes. There will be many people that try and trade the news that will lose money and there will be people that make money purely and simply because it's a 50/50 gamble trading unpredictable news.

It is advised to stay away when this type of news is happening in order to protect your capital. Within forex the main aim is to manage your risk and if we know there is potential risk it's best to remain patient and let the news pass.

My advise is to be wise and let the news pass before taking any new trades and to manage any current trades to take the risk out of them if possible. Don't be one of the traders that regrets their actions when they can be helped by being patient.

EUR/NZD Close to Support

As seen on the chart, EUR/NZD's price is currently sitting back at the 1.57000 support. We also have the ascending trendline close to price. We are watching this pair to see whether price gets rejected back by bullish buying momentum or breaks through by bearish sentiment. Today's candle doesn't indicate a rejection from support however, has held above. We will continue to watch the daily candle closes within his pair.

In order for bullish trend to continue, price needs to bounce off 1.56 level. Major bull target is seen at 1.63 which is the upper trendline in the long-term ascending channel.

On the other hand, if price breaks key level 1.56, we might be in for bearish continuation and potential major bear target at 1.47.

No news are scheduled for today for either pair which could mean that we are in for a calm day with low volatility and technical trading.

Chart: EUR/NZD D1

Traders' Remorse

Often when mistakes are made, there is always a tendency to dwell upon them, to regret them, or to loath them. This is how many people instinctively respond to mistakes, however this shouldn’t be how you respond to mistakes.

Regretting your mistakes will diminish your self-confidence and your creative self-expression. It will affect your performance and productivity, and make you feel absolutely miserable. Moreover, when you regret your mistakes this can trigger the habits of procrastination and perfectionism, as well as a plethora of emotions such as anger, stress, worry, fear and frustration. This is certainly no way to live. And considering that mistakes are actually a positive and transformative force in your life, you can see how many people have it all wrong.

More often than not, when you make a mistake, psychologically the best thing for you to do is to admit that you made the mistake and take full responsibility for resolving things. This will also give you peace of mind.

If you made a mistake, be responsible for fixing things and learning from your experience so that you can do better next time. This is how things should be. However, often people won’t admit their mistakes, and they certainly won’t learn from their experience. And as a result they keep repeating the same mistakes over and over again until critical lessons are finally learned.

As Paul Tudor Jones, the legendary trader, says "Failure was a key element to my life's journey".

AUD/JPY Back Into The Channel

AUD/JPY has been posting relatively mixed signals since late May as price fluctuated around 82.44. The pair consolidated around those levels with a low of 81.89 which happened to be outside the medium-term downtrend trading channel. Bears, however, couldn't sustain the momentum.

The pair is now back to the consolidation levels currently trading at 82.46, but the positive thing about the AUD bulls is that price is now back into the trading channel. This could mean that market participants might now endorse the idea to go North to first potential target at 84.00.

Should this level be reached, major bull target is seen at 85. The Australian dollar will need a lot of bull power to go to the other end of the trend. Important data is scheduled for tomorrow - RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun) and that might give the pair certainty in direction.

Chart: AUD/JPY H4

USD/CHF Below Resistance

USD/CHF is trading below resistance ever since it passed the level of 0.9800. The pair has been outside the upward trading channel and looks like bulls would need strong support from fundamentals so that price could start to rise again.

Today's data will most likely have a big impact on all US pairs as we are anticipating the most important release of the month, i.e. the Jobs and NFP report.

Yesterday's initial jobless claims turned out to be higher than expected but that did not have any significant impact on the pair.

If today's news are in favor of the US dollar, we will probably see the USD/CHF return to the trading channel above 0.98. If not, the downside potential expands to a target below 0.9650.

Chart: USD/CHF D1