September = Volatility

The last summer day serves to complete quite a big deal of things. Enjoying the last straw of the summer 2015 would be pleasurable, but a wiser thing to do would be make plans for autumn. For market players, September's economic outlook promises more volatility. Here are some of the main events you need to know about September:

The European Central Bank’s Policy Meeting is due on the 3rd of September. The ECB President and Vice President will explain the decision on interest rates at the press conference following the announcement of the interest rates.

The Bank of Canada Rate Statement on 9th of September will be closely monitored. 

On the 10th of September, Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England will vote on the bank rate and the asset purchase facility.

On the 14th of September, the Bank of Japan will release its revised decision on its benchmark interest rate which was last changed in February 1999 to 0.0 percent.

On the 17th of September, the Swiss National Bank is expected to revise its interest rate early in the morning. Following a double rate cut at the start of 2015, Switzerland's benchmark interest rate is now at the record low of -0.75%.

Later in the day, the Federal Reserve meeting, perhaps the most closely-watched event of the year – especially due to the questions on China market turmoil, economic contagion and low inflation – will be in to focus of market players' attention. A press conference will follow the publication of the decision to explain the reasons behind it.

WD Gann Quotes part2

Here is the second part of some of the notable words of wisdom Gann left us.

"Every movement in the market is the result of a natural law and of a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance. The future is but a repetition of the past, as the Bible plainly states: `The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done, and there is no new thing under the sun.' -Eccl. 1:9."

"If we know the cause of the effect, then there can be no doubt about predicting the future event or effect. I have always looked for causes and when once I determine a cause I can always be sure of the effect or future event which I predict."

“When you make a trade, you must have the patience to wait for opportunities to get out right, or to make the profit.”

“You must determine a definitie change in trend before you close a trade to take profits. This only results from study of past market movement, and from acquiring the proper knowledge.”

“You will always make money by following the main trend of stocks up or down. Remember that stocks are never too high to buy as long as the trend is up and they are never too low to sell as long as the trend is down.”

“Never sell short just because the stock is high or because you think it is too high. Never sell out and take profits just because the price is high. Buy and sell according to definite rules and not on hope, fear or guesswork”

WD Gann Quotes part1

Today we review some of the timeless wisdom nuggets of one of the most controversial and mysterious figures of Wall Street - William Delbert Gann.

"TIME is the most important factor in determining market movements and by studying the past records of the averages or individual stocks you will be able to prove for yourself that history does repeat and that by knowing the past you can tell the future. … There is a definite relation between TIME and PRICE. … Now, by a study of the TIME PERIODS and TIME CYCLES you will learn why tops and bottoms are found at certain times and why Resistance Levels are so strong at certain times and bottoms and tops hold around them. … The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles."

"My calculations are based on the cycle theory and on mathematical sequences."

"Mathematical science, which is the only real science that the entire civilized world has agreed upon, furnishes unmistakable proof of history repeating itself and shows that the cycle theory, or harmonic analysis, is the only thing that we can rely upon to ascertain the future."

"Every movement in the market is the result of a natural law and of a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance. The future is but a repetition of the past, as the Bible plainly states…"

After years of patient study I have proven to my entire satisfaction as well as demonstrated to others that vibration explains every possible phase and condition of the market."

"Thus, I affirm, every class of phenomena, whether in nature or in the stock market, must be subject to the universal law of causation and harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause."

Gold Sell-Off Continues

For a second day Gold posts significant losses. Today, so far, Gold is trading at $1,126.70, losing as much as $13.70 (1.20%). Lowest so far was the dip below $1,124. Partly, the sell-off is due to a stronger US dollar (EURUSD is currently trading at 1.1370) and due to technical resistance at $1,167 indicating a change of trend (see chart below).

Note that with the opening of the US trading session in about 30 minutes Gold may see a stronger sell wave if US markets open with a gap up as rumored along with Chinese stock market.

Chart: D1 XAUUSD

Gold Sell-Off

The yellow metal lost some of its shine today due to a stronger US dollar and technical gold bears. The price of Gold slipped with some $18.00 today (1.56%) and is currently trading at $1,136-$1,137. The resistance line was reached several time by the precious metal but only to go back below it.

Gold is now trading right at the 200SMA. General rule is you want to stay away from anything trading below the 200SMA, so let's see how it goes from here.

Short-term support now is $1,133 and short-term resistance is $1,144.

Chart H8, XAUUSD

1,000-point drop for DJIA and lots of panic

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 1,000 points in the opening seconds of the US trading session today. This is the first time in history for such an event to happen. It recovered quickly and closed 588.47 (3.58%) points lower reaching 15871.

EURUSD went from 1.1368 to 1.1712 and Gold created a small hurricane fluctuating between $1,152 and $1,170.

The Chinese market has suffered its biggest one-day plunge since 2007 after investors' selling overtook the markets in a reaction to the absence of any move by the People's Bank of China to take some action over the weekend to support the financial system.

Keyword for today: Panic.

Back Testing with MT4/5

Knowing what you do is crucial in Forex trading. This is why ActivTrades presents different webinars on Technical analysis, Fundamental analysis and all trading-related. 

This week's webinar was called "Back testing your strategy and Automated Trading with MetaTrader 4/5". Being on the edge of your trading feels awesome and pays awesome, so if you have not yet taken advantage of the free resources they provide, why wait more?

For details go HERE.

Gold Up On Weak Dollar

Gold registered its 5-week high in today's trading session. The FOMC yesterday caught Gold bears unprepared for the news and the weak U.S. Dollar pushed the yellow metal above $1,140. The biggest impact was felt in the EURUSD where the pair climbed with more than 100 pips to currently trade at 1.1181.

Prices are likely going to trade sideways until the end of the week given the USD Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug P) turns out to be a non-event.

Current XAUUSD price: $1,139.92

Eyes on FOMC

Markets are calm with traders and investors looking ahead to the FOMC minutes later today. A relatively calm trading session today means that market participants are waiting to see what the data would be and get a hint where to head from there. Minutes from 28-29 July FOMC meeting is expected at  6:00 GMT and highly volatile movements can be expected.

Current price of Gold: $1,126/oz.
EURUSD is trading at 1,1030 - 1,1033.

Gold broke the support on H1

Gold lost the support earlier today going from $1,119 to $1,109.57 in just a few minutes. With this short-term uptrend broken the establishment of a new downtrend becomes a possibility. Long-term scenario still remains bullish until some major event says otherwise.

Reminder: Gold prices are trading just below the H4 200SMA with heavy resistance at $1,125/oz.

Chart: H1 XAUUSD

Gold in a Positive Move

Gold saw some safe haven buying due to its low levels around $1,080. However, prices are still staggering and having a difficult time trying to push above $1,125. The long-term scenario still remains bearish with price expectations around $1,100-$1,050. Short-term may remain in the range of $1,025 to $1,012.

Chart: H1, XAUUSD

Gold Steady

Gold hit resistance in the early trading hours of the yesterday's trading session bouncing off the 200SMA and the upper trend line on the H4 channel. Expectations and market sentiment for the yellow metal remain negative for the short-term. With lack of events to stir the Gold market, traders and investors get bored quickly and lose interest in trading a non-volatile instrument. This has the potential to create low liquidity and bring its price further down. 

Current market price: $1,117

Oil Hits New Low

With the opening of the trading session today Oil slipped below the $40 mark thus hitting a 6-year low. $37.22 was the last low made on 02/18/2009. The short-term outlook remains negative for Crude Oil, but while the bears are seemingly having control over the situation now, the bulls are getting ready to enter the market once the bearish momentum gets exhausted.

Current market price: $41.90

Chart: H4 USOil

Gold Update

Gold managed to pull through the resistance at the psychological key level of $1,100 and closed its highest at $1,127. Prices are still looking for the right direction to trend in the long-term, but the bearish sentiment is still the leading factor in the short-term.

The last high of $1,127 acts as a resistance with 200SMA at the same level, if this resistance is breached, then the bulls will have to sustain the momentum and go for the next target of $1,161. Support rests at $1,118, after this, next support is $1,082.

Chart: H4, XAUUSD

Oil Slumps Yet Again

Since June 24 Oil has been in a sharp downtrend that has no indications of a change. Oil tried to take a breather today pushing above 43.50 going to 43.83 but failed to resist the bearish pull. Market sentiment is still bearish with factors such as a strong US Dollar having a major role. Strong support rests at $42.50.

Current market price: $43.06
Chart: H4, USOil

Important events of the week

Here are the main events scheduled for this week that could stir the markets and create volatility. With the Euro struggling to get back above 1.10 and Gold struggling to get back above $1,100 these events could trigger the necessary momentum that would make a possible change in trend for the U.S. Dollar.

Times are in GMT0

Warren Buffett Quotes Part3

This is our third and final post on Warrent Buffett's timeless wisdom put into simple words that can change your thinking and the way you look at investing. We hope you enjoy it!

"Never depend on a single income. Make investment to create a second source."

"If you buy things you do not need, soon you will have to sell things you need."

"Do not save what is left after spending, but spend what is left after saving."

"Never test the depth of river with both feet."

"Do not put all eggs in one basket."

"Honesty is a very expensive gift. Do not expect it from cheap people."

How to make the transition between Demo and Live trading?

Transitioning from a demo to live account could mean the world in trading. Everything you learn in Demo is important, but once you enter the real world with real money, you have to adjust to the real trading environment and this is not an easy task. It involves a change in thinking and decision making and would also make you act quite timidly compared to demo.

Hopefully, if you follow ActivTrades, you wouldn't have missed this week's webinar on "Transitioning from Demo to Live Trading". They provide great webinars covering the most important topics in trading. So if you still haven't made them your go-to broker, why wait more?

Gold at Major Support

Gold seems to be hesitating where to head now. This becomes clear from viewing the D1 Chart. For the past almost three weeks Gold has been trading in range just enough to stay on the support line.

As traders and investors eye the US economic data scheduled for tomorrow, the yellow metal gained some $7 to its price today.

Although it seems Gold has made a breakout below the support line, this does not imply a new channel just yet. It might be a fake breakout and knowing the behavior of Gold, it would not be surprising to see it skyrocket tomorrow.

Warren Buffett Quotes Part2

We continue with the second part of our Warren Buffett quotes hoping to interest and inspire our viewers:


"I violated the Noah rule: Predicting rain doesn't count; building arks does."

"Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago."

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."

"It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you'll do things differently."

"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1."

"Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing."

Gold Consolidating

Gold prices are relatively unchanged in today's trading session. Market participants' focus is drifted away from the precious metals to the currency and stock market. With significant economic data in the end of the week, traders and investors may cause a storm right after the stillness.

On Friday two major events are expected: the NFP (Jul) and the Unemployment Rate (Jul).

Gold is currently trading at $1,091-$1,092/oz
Chart: H1