What's with Gold?

With the currency controls in Greece one would expect that Gold would be once again regarded as the safe haven it has always been. But not this time.

Gold is currently trading at $1,175 which is below it's monthly average of $1,184.5. Gold's high for the month is $1,206 and Gold's low for the month is $1,163. Because of Greece default fears traders and investors are taking a flight to cash and bonds which leads to a rising U.S. Dollar.

Chart: H4

This Week's Events

With the IMF still expecting Greece to repay its $1.7 billion due Tuesday, all eyes are on the Greek imminent default. 

“Our expectation is that the payment will be made,” Gerry Rice, the fund’s chief spokesman, said Thursday at a regular press briefing in Washington. The fund’s longstanding policy isn’t to extend payment deadlines, and Greece would immediately be in arrears if the money doesn’t arrive, he said.

Nations that miss IMF payments are ineligible for further funds as long as they are in arrears. The lender’s procedures for dealing with overdue borrowers stretch over two years and culminate in potential expulsion from the fund’s membership.
Other major economic events of the week: (GMT00)

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Gold Still In Negative Territory

While the U.S. Dollar is rising due to uncertainty over the Greek debt crisis, the yellow metal is having a hard time pushing its price above $1,180. Yesterday's low of $1,170 was the result of lack of fresh news in the market and had technical traders in charge of the situation.

Negotiations between Greece and its creditors faltered on Wednesday as the latest proposed reforms by the Greek government were rejected by EU officials.

Discussions are expected to continue Thursday morning in Brussels.

Gold price: $1,174/1,175
EUR/USD: 1.1165/1.1168

All About Greece

With the coming meeting scheduled for later today (11:00 GMT) all eyes are on the Greek debt situation and a possible solution to end the Greek crisis, at least for a short period of time. The Eurogroup Emergency Greece Meeting (Lagarde, Draghi, Juncker, Dijesselbloem) is expected to hammer out a deal over the Greek debt.

However, the EU officials say that any settlement could take days to reach as Greece would probably not be able to pay any debts without the help from its creditors.

Chart shows that the Euro once again found the needed support at the level of 1.1150 and is currently trading at levels around 1.1200.

Chart: H4

Gold Weaker on Higher U.S. Dollar

High risk appetite can be considered as the main reason for the lower prices of Gold today. Due to the negotiations between Greece and EU officials, traders and investors disregard the yellow metal as a safe-haven and put their trust in the Greenback until a decision is made. The two parties are closer to an agreement on a deal with a meeting coming this Wednesday.

Technically, Bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objectives are as follows: $1,189; $1,205. First support at $1,175 and then $1,170.

Chart: H8

Gold at major resistance

The daily chart shows that Gold is faced with its greatest resistance since May 13 when it made the last high touching the resistance line and then falling back below it. 

Technically Gold is expected to continue its main trend down and here are the indicators to support it: On Daily, price is below 200SMA, meaning the trend is still bearish, if the yellow metal close the day below $1,200 it would be below the 0.618 Fibbo, and the latest uptrend support line starting from $1,143 was already breached a few days ago, and of course, price is at the key psychological level of $1,200.

Chart: D1

Gold Sharply Up

Gold took a turn north in yesterday's US trading session and passed the key psychological level of $1,200.00 thus making a four week-high. Two reasons stand behind this: safe-haven demand due to Greece debt worries and a bullish tone from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon.

Technically, gold bears still have the short-term advantage, moreover if the prices settle around the $1,200.00 level and no fresh news are released to support the rising of the yellow metal. Bulls' next target would be $1,205, then $1,210 and then the May high of $1,232. Bears' next objective would be to break the support line of $1,192, $1,183 and then this week's low of $1,171.

Chart: D1

WORLD OFFICIAL GOLD HOLDINGS, JUNE 2015

The latest International Financial Statistics released the World Official GOLD Holdings a few days ago and here is what it looks like for the top 25 countries:


1 United States 8,133.5 (tonnes) 73.7% (of reserves)

2 Germany 3,383.4 (tonnes) 67.6% (of reserves)

3 IMF 2,814.0 (tonnes)

4 Italy 2,451.8 (tonnes) 66.5% (of reserves)

5 France 2,435.4 (tonnes) 65.6% (of reserves)

6 Russia 1,246.6 (tonnes) 13.3% (of reserves)

7 China 1,054.1 (tonnes) 1.1% (of reserves)

8 Switzerland 1,040.0 (tonnes) 6.8% (of reserves)

9 Japan 765.2 (tonnes) 2.3% (of reserves)

10 Netherlands 612.5 (tonnes) 56.9% (of reserves)

11 India 557.7 (tonnes) 6.1% (of reserves)

12 Turkey6) 513.0 (tonnes) 16.1% (of reserves)

13 ECB 504.8 2(tonnes) 6.2% (of reserves)

14 Taiwan 423.6 (tonnes) 3.8% (of reserves)

15 Portugal 382.5 (tonnes) 69.4% (of reserves)

16 Venezuela 361.0 (tonnes)68.1% (of reserves)

17 Saudi Arabia 322.9 (tonnes) 1.7% (of reserves)

18 United Kingdom 310.3 (tonnes) 10.0% (of reserves)

19 Lebanon 286.8 (tonnes) 21.3% (of reserves)

20 Spain 281.6 (tonnes) 19.3% (of reserves)

21 Austria 280.0 (tonnes) 43.6% (of reserves)

22 Belgium 227.4 (tonnes) 34.5% (of reserves)

23 Kazakhstan 200.8 (tonnes) 26.7% (of reserves)

24 Philippines 195.3 (tonnes) 9.2% (of reserves)

25 Algeria 173.6 (tonnes) 3.9% (of reserves)
___________________________________________

World 31,949.0 (tonnes)
Euro Area (incl. ECB) 10,790.9 (tonnes) 55.3% (of reserves)
CBGA 4 signatories 11,956.6 (tonnes) 32.9% (of reserves)

Source: http://www.gold.org/research/latest-world-official-gold-reserves

Gold Triangle on H1 Complete

Gold Triangle is in the closing stages. That can be seen from the H1 chart below. A break out is expected in the next 5 hours when we can hopefully get a hint where the price is going to head.

Market sentiment continues to stay bearish with expectations of a further decline in the midst of a strong US dollar.

A break and a close below $1175 would indicate that the precious metal is heading south. On the other hand, a break and a close above $1183 would hint that the yellow metal is heading north.

Chart: H1 XAUUSD

EURUSD continues to trade sideways

The euro saw some positivity in the early trading hours today only to fall again under the resistance line. The euro rose to 1.1330 against the U.S. Dollar but failed to sustain its gain and is currently trading at 1.1260.

The triangle is almost complete and now we have to wait and see which way the pair takes and follow the trend. Long-term market sentiment stays bearish.

Chart: H4

Gold consolidating

Gold prices are currently trading right below the 200SMA on H1, thus making it a bearish trend and creating the expectation of a further decline for the precious metal. Although Gold is currently trading in the range of $1176-$1186/oz the overall market sentiment stays bearish for the near-term. 

A break below the support line at $1176 would open the path to $1163. On the other hand, a break above $1186 would retest resistance at the key psychological level of $1200. 

Chart: XAUUSD H1

Trading reversals

One of the most important elements in trading is catching tops and bottoms. If you learn how to spot market's highs and lows then you will be able to understand when is the best time to enter and exit a trade.

To learn trend reversals you should invest a lot of time and effort, a lot of attempts both successful and unsuccessful. Until you see that it can be done. But if you want to get a head start in finding trend reversals you can speed up the learning process and join Paul Wallace's webinar here:

http://www.activtrades.co.uk/index.aspx?page=events_webinar

Part of becoming a trader is learning to have a healthy fear of money, yet being free of it...

From Batman Rises

Blind Prisoner: You do not fear death. You think this makes you strong. It makes you weak.
Bruce Wayne: Why?
Blind Prisoner: How can you move faster than possible, fight longer than possible without the most powerful impulse of the spirit: the fear of death.
Bruce Wayne: I do fear death. I fear dying in here, while my city burns, and there's no one there to save it.
Blind Prisoner: Then make the climb.
Bruce Wayne: How?
Blind Prisoner: As the child did. Without the rope. Then fear will find you again.

Euro struggles to hold above 1.13

For the past week the euro has been in a "make-it-or-break-it" situation struggling to hold above 1.13 mark. The last high of 1.1468 made on May 15 acts as a starting point to a downward trend for the most traded currency pair in the world.


The euro has been trying to break the resistance line for a days in a row now and has failed in every attempt. As traders and investors are waiting for fresh news to stir the market, the eurusd is trading in the range between 1.1260 - 1.1350.

Chart: H4

Trading Wisdom

Let us look at a few fundamental qualities you have to obtain and preserve. In order to win at trading the markets you have to be willing to gain a set of qualities that would enable you to think and act in a way that will open your eyes and mind for what the tape is telling you. You have to clear your mind of every expectation, bias and prejudice. 

Only then when you closely observe the tape you begin to realize it is speaking to you in its own voice. Every stock, commodity, currency, bond and index has its own behavior. Once you learn to observe it you would be ready to trade. As soon as you start looking at the tape with the mindset that it is the only thing to tell you what you should do you will learn to cancel all background noise and focus on reading the tape. 

Gold breaks triangle, recovers slightly.

After Gold broke the descending triangle on June 4 and went as low as 1162 on June 5, the precious metal has been trying to recover and has gained as much as $20 since its last drop. Traders and investors are still unsure whether the break below the support zone is indicative of a massive move to the downside.

Not many important events this week, so it is possible that Gold market would be trading in the range between 1185-1160/oz. The main trend continues to be bearish.

Chart: D1

Extreme Volatility

The most important event of the month came in like a storm and created extreme volatility in under a second. Let us talk facts:

USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (MAY): +280K versus +226K expected, from +221K.
USD Unemployment Rate (MAY): 5.5% versus 5.4% expected.
USD Labor Force Participation (MAY): 62.9% from 62.8%.

The strong Jobs data came at an important time for the U.S. Dollar when traders and investors started to think of its recent lull as the beginning of a new uptrend for the euro, when it could actually be just a short-lived economic slowdown.

The EURUSD just lost 240pips in under an hour. Support: 1.09876

Chart: H4.

Dollar backs off, Gold insecure.

For the last couple of days we have seen how quick the euro can recover. One would expect that when the U.S. Dollar backs off , this would give the needed spark in Gold and send its price significantly higher. Not exactly. Gold has not seen much of a positive impact. This might be due to expectations building ahead of key economical data on Friday with the U.S. Jobs Report.

However, with the report on Friday, we are probably going to see a significant reaction in Gold market. A move north would suggest that the Fed would not be able to raise interest rates as soon as they want, which would be bullish for Gold. On the other hand, strong Jobs reading on Friday, would give the Fed a green light to go ahead and raise rates as soon as September, which would be bearish.

Chart: Candlestick EURUSD; Line XAUUSD; H4;

EURUSD in a perfect tramline

Yesterday's bullish price action in the euro added 279 pips to the EURUSD pair. The gain resulted over the rumors that a deal on the Greek debt had been reached. The size of the move was incredible as the U.S. Dollar dropped by almost 3%. Today, the euro kept on going in the same direction and gained another 100 pips, as traders and investors eye the 1.13 level.

The chart shows how perfectly the timing was when the euro was supported while sliding on the support zone.

Expect volatility to continue in the most liquid market on the planet.
Support: 1.09800
Resistance: 1.16000

Gold Triangle

Since last week, Gold has been climbing on the support line and is currently trading at $1190. A test of the resistance line could be expected this week and with the most important data of the month, Non-farm Payrolls, we could see a lot of excitement in the price of Gold on Friday. Although bias still looks bearish, the bulls seem to be getting momentum and spikes can be expected, as we saw yesterday.

Bears need one close below the support line to change the trend direction. Until then, the bulls are in control with prices holding right above the support line, which is being tested for the third time since March 17 when Gold has been favored among traders and investors and kept the prices rising from $1143.

A Gold Triangle could be seen on daily chart. Although not yet complete, chances are the bulls will try to put pressure on the bears and break above the resistance and the 200 SMA, which would be a strong signal that an uptrend is confirmed. 

Support - $1170-$1180
Resistance - $1210-$1220
Chart - D1

Gold falls on Stronger Dollar

Today Gold climbed to $1197/oz in the opening minutes only to fall back to where it was last week and is currently trading at $1185-$1187/oz. The trend looks neutral and a move south could mean that we could witness a continuation of the downward movement. A break below the support line of $1184 would indicate pressure from the bear side, while a break above the $1194 would mean that the bulls are making their move. 

In the longer-term resistance rests between 1198-1209, whilst 1180-1172 remain strong supports. 

The biggest events for the week are US Unemployment Rate and USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls and are scheduled for Friday, 12:30 GMT.