The SMART Approach To Trading Research

As you know, from time to time I share with you resources such as free webinars that can improve your trading performance and increase profits.

If you follow closely ActivTrades you would know that their latest webinar "The Smart Approach To Trading Research" was packed with useful insights and knowledge. This time it was Paul Matheson who conducted the webinar and provided complex strategies in a simple manner. If you watched the webinar you know what is meant by SMART:

Make sure you follow future free events by staying up to date with their webinar page HERE.

EURUSD Broke Support

The pair fell sharply yesterday after the FOMC did not take any action to change the interest rate, keeping it at its current near zero. The FOMC voted 9-1 to leave the Federal Funds Rate unchanged between zero and 0.25%. The Fed also hinted that a raise is still on the table before the end of the year. The hawkish stance sent the euro tumbling against the dollar, as it fell below 1.09 for the first time since early-August.

The pair is currently trading at 1.0968 witnessing some short-covering and profit taking but the negative impact would leave the pair unstable for the next few days at the least.

Chart: EURUSD D1

EURUSD Below 200SMA

The pair is in its 4th day to trade below the 200SMA. It is currently on its strong support level on the lower trend line at 1.10. Although the pair tried to climb above the 1.11 mark it failed to maintain momentum and gave up in the face of all the bears in the market.

In light of the strong support now might be a good time for long-term traders to open a long position with a tight stop below 1.0965. But I personally would advise all bulls to be patient and observe what the pair will do in the next few days and will it manage to go over the 200SMA. The general rule is "stay away from everything that is below the 200SMA", don't forget this!

Chart: EURUSD D1

AUDUSD Losing Ground

The pair fall to its three-week low in the early trading European session today. It hit 0.7110 and is currently trading at 0.7125. It managed to hold in the descending trend channel as it found resistance around the upper line at 0.7380.

If it continues to trade in the channel, resistance could be expected at 0.7250 while immediate support is 0.7060 and then 0.6980. From there, price could try and form a new upward channel, according to technicals.

Chart: AUDUSD H1

Gold Steady

The price of Gold has been relatively unchanged for the last few days, circulating in the range between $1,170 and $1,160. Currently Gold is trading at $1,164 and all this consolidation might mean one thing - it's about to head either down or up. Now, technically Gold was in sell zone when it reached $1,192 and fell below $1,178.

What happens next would be decided by the tape so do not try and fight the tape. Main trend remains pointing to the south and I am expecting a fall below $1,000 for the next year.

Chart: H1 XAUUSD

EURUSD Sharply Lower

The EURUSD opened at 1.1340 today and is currently trading at 1.1110-1.1112. This is due to the press conference of Mario Draghi and the ECB rate decision. President Mario Draghi said that the bank will reassess whether to extend its massive bond-buying program by the end of the year. Draghi and ECB members left the door open for more monetary stimulus but stopped short of announcing any new policy measures. Because of this announcement the Euro lost more than 200 pips against the once again dominating US Dollar.

Strong support may be found at 1.1070 and if this level is breached it would be best to wait and stay away until price defines a new trend.

Chart: EURUSD H4

Gold Below 200SMA

For the past few days Gold was trying to keep its position above the 200SMA. This is the only reason investors and traders held their long positions in the precious metal. Expectations, however, are often different than reality. This is the case that we witnessed in this scenario, too. 

Gold climbed above the 200SMA, stayed there for a few days and reversed back below it. It went up to $1,192 and then a few days later fell to $1,163 to currently trade at $1,167. 

Market sentiment remains bearish, so if you have any open long positions you may want to wait for brighter days. 

Chart: H1 XAUUSD

Will S&P500 Reverse?

Reject or project? This is the question we ask today. Will S&P be rejected or projected when it reaches the inflection point at 2,050-75? The chart shows that S&P is facing strong resistance at the level around 2,050-75.

A few minor technical divergences show that the index has been weakening these last days. Watch for bearish divergences, selling pressure or an intraday reversal below resistance as early sell clues.

Crude Lower

Crude oil reached as low as 45.76 in today's trading session and is currently trading at 46.30. Technically, it is still far from its support line at 45.10 so a sharp sell-off could be expected until it reaches this buy-zone and bulls take advantage of the commodity.

With the expiration date a few days behind us it might be a good strategy to buy the dips now and hold for $52-$53 but the risk is that bears are not done yet with Oil so bulls might want to wait a few more days.

Chart: USOil D1

EURUSD Undecided

The EURUSD climbed to 1.1494 in the early trading hours on Thursday thus forming its latest high. For better or worse it failed to sustain its gains and declined to 1.1333. Currently the EURUSD is trading at 1.1365-67.

While the main long term trend is still bullish, bearish sentiment remains strong in the short term. Possibility exists that price may want to check the 1.12 level again. However, I expect prices to continue trading in favour of the US Dollar at least until the end of the year.

Support is 1.1314 and resistance is 1.1454.

Chart: EURUSD H4

Online Trading Course 2015

To trade without knowing what you’re doing will get you broke in no time. How can you expect from someone to profit from something they’ve never learned before? How can they think they can excel and be successful in an industry they don’t know anything about? Be wise and learn. 

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You have to be willing to learn, this is what the best traders and investors do. They read and learn new things constantly. This learning process never stops. Take for example a doctor, a psychiatrist, a lawyer. They spent anywhere from two to ten years’ time studying and preparing to practice their profession before they begin making any money. 

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Men enter into speculation on Wall Street and invest thousands of dollars into companies, commodities and currencies of which they know nothing about. They expect a quick return but instead they end up with a margin call. You have heard the expression that 98% of all those who go into Wall Street lose. While this might be a little overstated, according to latest annual data from the main brokerage firms not more than 10-15% from those who enter into Wall Street are profitable traders.

ActivTrades is having this online course which can be very beneficial for you. If you're looking for a place where you can learn about trading this online course is for you. Technical and fundamental analysis, trading systems, Q&A sessions and discussions all in one place. For more info HERE.

Important News on Interest Rates

A few hours ago Jeffrey Lacker, President of Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond made a statement about interest rates and US economic growth. Here is what he had to say:

“Well, to cut to the chase, I don’t know whether we’re going to raise rates in October or not.  I made a decision at the last meeting to dissent, because I thought conditions warranted higher rates then.  I thought the same was true back in June. I was persuaded to hold off, that the timing of the interest rate increase wouldn’t matter plus or minus one or two meetings.  Beyond six to nine months, getting up to six, nine months, that’s another matter entirely. As for the data, so the retail sales report was maybe a notch lower than expectations.  But I don’t think it changes the outlook fundamentally; it doesn’t change the picture for me much.  Consumer spending has been very strong.  We had some very strong retail sales numbers in the spring and the summer.  People are looking at over 3 percent real consumer spending growth for the third quarter, and that’s been consistent with consumer spending having been very strong over the last two years, over 3 percent growth, in contrast to less than 2 percent early in the expansion.  So that, for me is an important data point, and it doesn’t change my outlook that much.”

"The higher sustained growth we've seen in real consumer spending strongly suggests that real interest rates need to be higher than they are now," Mr. Lacker said. "It seems unlikely" the current level of short-term rates "is going to be sustainable with this stretch of consumer spending growth."

EURJPY at a crossroad

The EURJPY pair seems to have a difficult time deciding where to go from here. The pair has formed a really strong and wide channel since the mid of April and is still strictly following it. 

Right now things are technically burning as the pair is trading at the upper triangle line and close to the lower support line. Should it break the resistance at 136.85-137 I'm ready to go long for 147 before the beginning of December. 

On the other hand, if the pair retreats to the support line this would also be a buy opportunity at around 134.50. If it breaks this support, it may try to go as low as 129.50. 

Chart: EURJPY D1

Gold is trading lower

Gold lost some of its gains for the previous days due to bearish technicals and lack of fresh news. Traders and investors did not miss the opportunity to sell at the highest level around $1,165-$1,167.

Currently the precious metal is trading at $1,157 while short-term sentiment remains bearish. First level of support is seen at $1,150, S2 is $1,130 and S3 is found at $1,120.

First level of resistance is $1,167, R2 is $1,187 and R3 is $1,205.

Chart: XAUUSD H1

GBPUSD Bullish

Bullish sentiment remains strong with the GBPUSD pair amid worse-than-expected Trade Balance Figures. The Cable is still trying to break away from the 1.53 major level. Traders and investors acted strongly on the limited dips at 1.53 as an anticipated target, represented by the 20-SMA, weekly and monthly pivot points.

Immediate resistance lays at 1.5319 while support rests at 1.5274.

Chart: GBPUSD H1

10 Overlooked Warren Buffett Quotes

Warren Buffett is considered to be one of the most successful investors of all time. No further introduction is needed so let's see what he had to say that wasn't actually taken into account by traders and investors. Here are the 10 overlooked quotes of the genial investor. 

I’ve never swung at a ball while it’s still in the pitcher’s glove.

Never ask a barber if you need a haircut.

It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked.

Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.

If we can’t find things within our circle of competence, we don’t expand the circle. We’ll wait.

No matter how great the talent or efforts, some things just take time. You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.

If calculus or algebra were required to be a great investor, I’d have to go back to delivering newspapers.

You can’t make a good deal with a bad person

I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.

The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don’t have to swing at everything–you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you are a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, ‘Swing, you bum!’

Gold Confused

After today's green data for the US, Gold lost traders' trust and fell to $1,137. This, however, was only a temporary decline as just a few minutes after this low the precious metal recovered back to pre-data levels.

Gold is currently trading ат $1,145 and the main short-term trend is yet to be discovered. Have in mind that today's FOMC meeting (18:00GMT) will definitely have an impact on Gold price.

Current level of support rests at $1,130 and resistance is $1,162.

Chart: XAUUSD H1

Gold In An Uptrend

Gold has been performing positively for the past three weeks since its bottom at $1,070. This low has acted as the beginning of the new uptrend which is currently still going strong. Every time the price has reached the support line the precious metal has been reacting to it by gaining new strength.

The price of Gold at the moment is $1,148 and although it has been slightly uncertain today, it is still going upside to reach the next big target - $1,162 - $1,164.

Chart: XAUUSD H4

Gold Slightly Up

The yellow metal is witnessing some safe haven buying due to negative US data. Prices rose from $1,136 to $1,150 to currently trade at $1,148-$1,149. It should be noted that Friday's gains were a reaction not only driven by Fundaments but also by Technicals. $1,104 was the third touch of the support line after which Gold skyrocketed.

Next big resistance rests at $1,160-$1,162.

Chart: XAUUSD D1

Gold Slipping

The precious metal is in the red since today's opening. Gold opened at $1,139 and couldn't sustain Friday's gains. Currently Gold is trading at $1,131-$1,132/oz. With no major news to stir the market, traders and investors do not have a lot of reasons to hold any long Gold positions. Apparently, they do not care about the Syrian conflict and the involvement of Russia in it. As we have said before, Gold is influenced by geopolitical crises that spread beyond a national territory. So far, we have not witnessed this with the Syrian civil war.

First strong support is $1,115, first resistance is $1,141. After those levels: S2: $1,094, S3: $1,076; R2: $1,157, R3: $1,170.

Chart: XAUUSD H1

Elevate Your Trading

Having the right tools in trading is the crucial substance that makes everything work. Therefore, it's vital for traders to use the right approach to each and every trade.

This is why ActivTrades have developed a new feature that presents a new take on how to trade markets. SmartOrder 2 is an application that allows you to extend the functions of MetaTrader 4 in a much simpler, effective and user-friendly way. No platform should be complicated, heavy and hard to understand, as trading requires simple actions for best results. And ActivTrades know this too well, apparently!

The good news is that it's completely free for all their clients. You can try a Demo to get the first impression.

For more information please click HERE.

Happy Trading!

Has Gold Found Support?

Gold has made two lows on the same level for the past few hours at $1,111.95. We didn't witness a lot of volatility, except one attempt to break the resistance line by going to $1,119.46 and then back again to confirm the downward trend on Hourly chart.

If this channel proves to be correct it would mean that the breakout to $1,119.46 was fake and price would soon decline further to its first support at $1,111.95. After that, support rests at $1,104 and then $1,094. First resistance at current market price is $1,119.46, then comes $1,124 and third level of resistance is $1,135.

Chart: XAUUSD H1