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Gold Approaching Resistance

After the significant EUR/USD move to the upside, Gold was the asset that also gained in value in face of a depreciating US dollar. The precious metal is now trading at $1,294, up from $1,236 just two weeks ago.

The increased interest in the safe haven is due to the uncertain economic condition in the US and the latest interest rate. Gold is now faced with the opposition at the psychological level of $1,300 where a lot of Gold bears would jump in attempt to bring the price down. First bear target is seen at $1,275, second - $1,250 and third - $1,235.

If bulls are able to break through resistance we might see Gold shining again with new strength. Major bull target is expected at $1,300 which would then act as major support level.

Chart: XAU/USD H4

EUR/USD Close To Double Top

The EUR/USD pair is now trading close to double top. The Euro made a strong comeback this year as it went as low as 1.05 and slowly but surely made its way to highs around 1.20. The pair is currently trading at 1.1950 and it appears that it's ready to move further up.

If it reaches 1.1965 this would create a double top and potentially there is a chance that the trend would turn around. However, if the trend persists to the upside due to increased buying momentum, we are to see a break above the double top resistance and a continuation of the upward move.

First bull target is seen at 1.1965, if this is taken over, second bull target is the level at 1.2050 and third bull target is seen at 1.2150. On the other hand, weak buying pressure could expose the pair to uncertain times. First bear target is seen at 1.1730, second bear target is seen at 1.1640 and third bear target rests at 1.1550.

Chart: EUR/USD H4

The Patterns of the Charts Part I

Looking at markets and charts through a different perspective, other than just two sides buying and selling, we see things differently. Metaphysically, the patterns on the charts of the financial markets are all perfectly ordered by the Natural law of the Universe. You might just doubt it now and think that the moves on the charts are all random and everything, but you will see that these complicated zig zag patterns repeat themselves over and over as the time goes by.

It is the same case in all time frames. Some of you out there may suppose that this is the economic state that moves the charts, creating such complex zig-zag patterns but this is actually the human emotions doing so. When humans feel joy and prosperity we buy, raising the price index but when we start to feel fear and panic then we sell, lowering the price index.

The fact that matters is that this is the structure of human’s behavior graphed out on the charts, just as spider which is not aware of the beautiful web it builds. Therefore what traders construct in time and price charts are absolutely phenomenal and they should be able to study and research the humans behavior and consciousness instead of focusing on the markets and economic state.

Silver Drafting a Cypher

A bearish cypher is on the rise for Silver. The precious metal went from 18.20 in early September to a low of 16.55 in early October. By mid-October Silver made a short lived rally that pushed the price to a high of 17.46. Then it went into consolidation and has not yet breached out of it.

The price is now 17.18 and as it appears, it's slowly moving out of the range towards the break of resistance at 17.40.

Silver is currently drawing a cypher pattern that would turn bearish at the end of it if all goes according to the rules. In such case, the metal would have to climb to $18.00 before November is over. If that does not occur, then the pattern would be deemed invalid.

Chart: XAGUSD H4

Gold Consolidates

The consolidation in the metal market continues for a third consecutive week after October pushed Silver and Gold into bearish territory. During October Gold was trading at a high $1,307 and then went to $1,266 before the month ended.

That level was closest to the 200SMA and some support occurred there that moved the price to yesterday's high of $1,288. The move turned out to be somewhat a reflex and the price went down again below $1,280.

This month uncertainty in the metal market is the predominant sentiment and this is seen also in the Silver market where price is range bound between $17.20 and $16.90.

Gold is yet to define a direction and times as these might be used to pile up positions as the market is getting ready to move.

Chart: XAU/USD H4

USD/JPY Consolidates

Consolidation is viewed as the decision period in any market. Although short term, the consolidation in the USD/JPY indicates that the pair is looking both ways and has not yet decided where to go from here.

The resistance level met at 114.60 was met with favor from the bear camp who sold the pair to a low of 113.63. The pair is now trading at 113.79, just slightly higher than the lowest low. If the indecision persists, we could see the pair gravitate between 114.00 and 113.70.

This week is light on news which could suggest that the consolidation will continue. No major news is sometimes good news given that the healthy behavior of a market is enough to keep the direction going.

On the downside, first support zone is seen at 111.66, on the upside, first resistance zone is the latest high at 114.60.

Chart: USD/JPY H4

GBP/USD Down, BoE Raises Rate To 0.50%

The Sterling is down triple digits against all of its competitors after the Bank of England decided to hike rates from 0.25% to 0.50%. Since the initial sell off reaction, the Pound has not been able to recover as waves of selling continue to drive the price lower and lower.

GBP/USD is down 1.40%, GBP/JPY is down 1.47% and the biggest losers are GBP/AUD with 1.87% and GBP/NZD with 1.80%. The sell off is far from over as policymakers expect further tightening of monetary policy and that would have a continuous effect on diminishing the value of the currency.

The move may have been a surprise to some as usually raising interest rates means you get more for the money you hold and thus is preferable to hold more. But today's scenario brings back memories from 1992 when George Soros and Stan Druckenmiller sold off what would become the biggest trade in their life. That same trade resulted after  the British government announced a rise in the base interest rate from an already high 10 to 12 percent to tempt speculators to buy pounds.

Chart: GBP/USD H4

Gold Up

Gold posted some gains after the expected US dollar correction. The precious metal traded heavily on the downside last week and only on Friday did it manage to gain some strength and push through the bearish resistance to post a green candle.

Last week we saw the US dollar appreciate rapidly after comments by ECB President Mario Draghi on future outlook on EU policy. EUR/USD lost some 200 points in the day of announcement and continued to trade in the low range below 1.1580-1.1630.

Now that the US dollar is going through a correction, Gold has the chance to shine again,if only for a while. The recent gains do not seem appealing and the precious metal is still vulnerable to bear attacks. Price shoot up from $1,263 to $1,278 but now it's trading at $1,274.

If price breaks support at $1,260 then we might be heading towards long term support at $1,250. If that level is broken, then we might close the year below $1,200.

Chart: XAU/USD H4

NZD/USD Below Long Term Support

Hard times currently for the New Zealand dollar as the currency depreciated rapidly after political turmoil rattled their financial stability. The above chart is the weekly analysis of NZD/USD.

Market sentiment is overall bearish and seems to be looking for more bearish movement. A break of the current support would lead to potential further shorting opportunities. However we could see a daily lower high which would also be a nice area for a shorting position.

Below 0.68 the bearish movement is expected to continue progressing. Currently the pair is still being sold due to uncertainty and lack of stability. As soon as we have some concrete information about further political and economical development in New Zealand the pair could enjoy some buying that could recover the price to levels close to the 200SMA.

Chart: NZD/USD W1

GBP/USD Slightly Up

The GBP/USD pair is trading slightly to the upside as price found the support needed to stabilize itself into the uptrend. The price found support at 1.3100 and then reached as high as 1.3227 before heading down to lower levels.

Currently, it's trading around 1.3200 as uncertainty still remains the predominant market emotion. We would need price to close above 1.3250 in order for the bullish move to continue. On the other hand, if price breaks the support at 1.3120 we are likely to see a continuation of the bearish short-term trend.

Major bear target is seen at 1.3050, while major bull target is seen at 1.3350. The pair has been trading sharply to the downside these past few weeks so we might be in for a corrective rally that would stabilize the price.

Chart: GBP/USD H4

Gold Close To Support

Gold is trading relatively close to the support level of $1,272 which could spark bullish interest in the precious metals driving the price up. Recently, it's been difficult for Gold to gain momentum although attempts are not lacking.

The latest move to the upside came in the beginning of October when price reached the level of $1,262 and immediately launched to what would later become a $42 rally.

Now, however, things look more uncertain as the precious metal is feeling weak in the shadow of the strengthening US dollar. As we are heading to December, the Fed is expected to raise rates again which could stimulate the US currency and create lack of demand for Gold.

Chart: XAU/USD H4

USD/CAD Breaks Resistance

The long awaited break to the upside from the USD/CAD pair has finally been done. The Canadian dollar went through a disappointing news release on Friday when retail sales turned out to be negative 0.7% instead of the expected positive 0.3%.

The effect was a massive sell off of the pair which resulted in a rally in USD/CAD. The pair gained more than a cent going from 1.2477 to 1.2637 in less than a day.

Currently, it is still gravitating towards its highest point as the pair is now above the medium term resistance that started with the downfall in the beginning of May this year.

First bull target is seen at 1.2665. If bulls take this out, next one comes at 1.2780. Important news are scheduled this week, so paying attention to fundamentals is key.

Chart: USD/CAD H4

US Index Breaks Resistance

On the daily analysis of the US Dollar Index it is clear that price has breached the medium term resistance on the downward trend. As you can see we have highlighted the market structure. Price was forming lower highs and lower lows until recent when we saw price show a break out of the trendline to the upside.

This formed a higher high as shown, price then came back to the downside and formed a higher low. Since we have seen price slowly make its way into bullish territory, showing a strong push to the upside on Friday.

Price is above the 20 & 50 EMA's with only one bullish rejection on Friday. If price continues to the upside, the 20 & 50 EMA's will cross bullish, as they are already touching. The next barrier in the way for the US Dollar index is the daily 200EMA. Then we have the 12125 resistance.

Chart: US Index D1

EUR/USD Ahead of Draghi Speech

The EUR/USD is trading somewhat unchanged today gravitating towards 1.1760 in anticipation of the speech by Mario Draghi, the ECB President. The speech will most likely give indications how does the EU stand in terms of stability and future outlook and where the EU economy is headed.

Market sentiment remains bullish for the Euro as technically, the Euro is well positioned and it's stable enough to continue onto its second attempt to conquer the 1.20 level. If we hear positive news from President Draghi, bulls will not hesitate to jump in heavier and push price further up to first bull target at 1.1890. Second bull target is seen at 1.20 and third bull target is seen at the latest high at 1.2092.

On the other hand, a failure to meet market participants' expectations of a positive message, bears might attempt to take control and push it down to last low at 1.1736.

Chart: EUR/USD D1

EUR/CAD Bearish

On the daily timeframe where EUR/CAD has been forming bearish market structure printing lower highs and lower lows. Recently price showed a rejection off the 1.4470 area which gave it a push back to the upside.

This has not led to the market structure changing, so we are still watching for an overall lower high. As you can see price has current reached as far as the Ichimoku cloud which aligns closely with the 1.48683 resistance. From this area we have seen two rejection candles followed by indecision.

From here we can see the potential of price heading bearish. The weekly candle has also closed showing selling pressure which is a nice further confluence. Bears' first target would be at the 1.43744 support which price came close to previously, this would also form a new lower low.

Chart: EUR/CAD D1

US Dollar Settles In The Lows

Update of the US Dollar analysis on the daily chart. It seems that the index is settling at its recent lows around 11800 - 11 780.

Over the last week we have seen price show a rejection off the -27.2% Fibonacci extension level. Price pushed back up to the 11855 support turned resistance, which aligned with the 20EMA. At this point price printed a bearish engulfing candle which has led price back to the downside.

Price is yet to show a break or rejection from the -27.2% support area, however, a break of this area would open up a big amount of room to the downside which could lead price to the -61.8% extension at 11656.

Today's week has a lot of economic news, most importantly tomorrow's FOMC meeting and Fed Rate decision and this could be an indicator of future direction of the index.

Chart: US Index, D1

Gold Opens with a Gap

Gold opened the trading session with a gap of about $10 jumping from $1,322 to opening price of slightly above $1,332. The reason for the gap open is the weekend geopolitical tension created by North Korea. The continuation of missile launches directed to targets in Japan's sea is raising concerns amid the political scene. World leaders are calling for provocation to stop. South Korea says it expects further missile launches, Russia and Japan are calling for North Korea to stick to the UN resolutions and Trump is threatening with a massive and effective military response.

All of this creates uncertainty. And in the midst of uncertainty Gold thrives. If these tensions continue to spell dark clouds we might see Gold break the barrier of $1,400 this month.

So far today Gold reached a high of $1,339 and is now trading at $1,333. More hedge funds pile Gold into their portfolio as major currencies are seeing some outflows of capital.

Chart: XAU/USD D1

Gold at Triple Top

Gold has been saturating the area between $1,300 and $1,200 for the past six months as price is having a hard time going above the psychological level of $1,300. Currently Gold is hovering around $1,280-$1,285 which makes it vulnerable to bear attacks.

If the lack of stimulation in the Gold market continues, we can expect Gold prices to turn their direction yet again to the downside. Given how big of an impact Bitcoin is having and how rapidly it is growing in market cap, a big chunk of Gold investors might allocate their capital in the cryptocurrency market.

Should this be true, then we can expect Gold prices to reach major support at $1,200 in the near future. On the other hand, one thing is for sure - even if Bitcoin ceases to exist, Gold will be there ready to take investors on the safe side at any given time.

Chart: XAU/USD D1

Japanese Equities Go Down

Within the chart we have seen price break out of the long term sideways range within the JPN225 index. Price has broken out of the range to the downside where it is now sitting at the 19650 support.

If we see bearish continuation from here breaking through the support, trendline and inchimoku cloud, then we will be looking for some sort of retest for a potential short market entry order. Patience at the moment is the key as we could be having a potential opportunity within this market.

Below 19400 we would have gone below the support and that could expose the Japanese equity market to more bearish pressure with big downside potential.

Key area would be the 19500 level for a make it or break it movement.

Chart: JPN225 D1