Wednesday, January 31, 2018

EUR/USD Looks To Consolidate

Taking a look at EUR/USD daily chart it's clear we have not seen too much movement over the course of the week Last week we saw price show bearish action on Thursday and Friday. This may now lead to price showing a retracement.

Market participants could then be looking for a higher low to form. A new higher low would be a nice opportunity to take a long position. Before taking any positions, it would be best to wait for the market structure to change.

The EUR/USD could still post gains especially in times when the USD's reputation has been somewhat altered and the Euro is winning points against major competitors.

Chart: EUR/USD D1


Tuesday, January 30, 2018

UK100 Posting Gains

We have recently seen price print a higher high at the 7780 area, price has since come back down to the broken 7600 resistance turned support/38.2% Fibonacci retracement area and shown a bullish rejection.

Market sentiment seems to be looking for the UK100 to continue to the upside. A break of the 7780 resistance would open a large amount of room to the upside and give the potential of price reaching 7933/-61.8% Fibonacci extension level.

On the other hand, however, we could see a bearish turn that could lead the price to a major bear target at 7300 which would create a double bottom. Given the strong economic outlook for the UK we could be cautiously optimistic.

Chart: UK100, D1


Dax Moving Up

The above chart is an update of the Germany 30 daily analysis. Last week price broke through the 13500 resistance and spiked close to the -27.2% Fibonacci retracement.

Price has since shown a retracement again from the most recent higher high created above the 13500 resistance. Price has since come back down to the 20 EMA and has printed a small bullish rejection as highlighted in the yellow circle. From here we could see price rally to the upside printing a further new higher low.

If price breaks above the -27.2% extension we will be looking for a new higher high at the -61.8% Fibonacci resistance area @ 13852.

Major bull target is seen at the highest Fibo retracement at 13852.

Chart: DAX, D1


Monday, January 29, 2018

Economic Events Of The Week

The week ahead has some interesting and fundamental events to offer. We start off the week with virtually no major news but as we get ahead into it, it gets intensified. For Tuesday we have the USD CB Consumer Confidence expected to land higher at 123.0 than the previous 122.1

On Wednesday the biggest market mover is the FOMC Statement and the Fed Interest rate Decision. Not much speculation has been going on about this so we could expect the rate to remain unchanged at 1.50%. Apart of that, we have a speech by President Trump.

Thursday has event that are not implying any drastic changes such as ISM Manufacturing PMI in both the UK and the US.

Friday has the most anticipated US data of the month - the Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate. Expectations are more on the higher scale of things with NFPs expected to hit 175K up from 148K and jobs data to remain unchanged.

*All times are in GMT.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Silver Below Resistance

Silver's latest move to the upside was a stable and easy climb from 15.60 to a high of 17.40. Price is now trading in the upper range below $17.00 and it appears that the uptrend has been broken.

The precious metal has been trading in the range of $15 and $17 since the month of May last year and it's still having a hard time trying to break out.

Last break above $17 looked promising to suggest that the break out is solid and healthy but it turned out this was a fake break out as price is back below $17. We have to monitor the precious metal for a new break and close and then see if it's steady and stable enough for price to continue on the uptrend.

Chart: XAG/USD D1


USD/CAD Consolidates at The Lows

USD/CAD has been trading around its low points currently consolidating between 1.25 and 1.24. The pair has been in a long term downtrend and it's only recently beginning to shows signs of recovery. With the USD depreciating it could take some more time for the pair to start a healthy uptrend.

We could see a rise in the US dollar which would reflect all USD pairs as we have been in a downtrend for the most part of the last year. If we can find bottom in current USD/CAD pair, bulls have a lot of room to the upside. First bull target is seen at 1.26.

The Euro rally appears to have exhausted now and a few prominent market experts are calling out that current market level in the EUR/USD is the top and we would witness a US dollar appreciation this year.

Chart: USD/CAD H4


Tuesday, January 23, 2018

EUR/GBP At Support

The Euro has been going downhill against it's peer the Sterling. In the recent days we've seen a depreciation from 0.8930 to a low of 0.8760 as the pair lost due to a strong Sterling and strong UK outlook for the Brexit situation.

Currently, price has been halted at the bottom level at 0.8760 and is now trading slightly higher at 0.8782. If the uptrend continues we could see it reach first bull target at 0.8845 before the end of the week.

We would need some positive news from the EU in order to boost the move as we already have relatively stable technical outlook that could favor a move to to the area 0.8920 - 0.8990.

If the support is broken, next bear target and profit taking could occur at 0.8700.

Chart: EUR/GBP H4


Monday, January 22, 2018

DAX Going Up

Dax was trading in a choppy environment until recently when the price broke the consolidation pattern and began a move to the upside. We can now see a break out to the upside which could open new highs.

Price is currently sitting below the 13500 resistance. If price breaks and closes above this area we would see price create new highs. For further resistance areas we could use Fibonacci extension levels, as price recently showed a new higher low at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement which aligned with our 13200 support. The key now is to watch if price breaks the 13500 resistance or gets rejected.

If there is a rejection we could stay some more in the consolidation area, otherwise once price breaks through 13500, possibilities are 13900 and 14000.

Chart: DAX D1


NZD/CAD Above Resistance

NZD/CAD pair has been doing pretty well in the recent days going from 0.90 beyond 0.91 and consolidating around 0.9090. NZD/CAD saw a bullish weekly candle close at the top of the box range.

The market structure is bullish, however price still remains at the 200EMA and weekly 50EMA. For a long position, we need to see a break beyond the box range resistance. A solid break - retest would be a great signal of further upside movement.

Above 0.91 we could see bullish move towards 0.92 and major bull target at 0.94. On the downside, first support zone is seen at 0.8890, second support is seen at 0.8755 and third support rests at 0.87.

Chart: NZD/CAD D1


Friday, January 19, 2018

ActivTrades Introduces Cryptocurrencies

ActivTrades has recently rolled out their newest asset class available for trade - cryptocurrencies. As you probably know, cryptocurrencies saw their rise in late 2017 and since then they have been in the media and all over the news.

Now with their newest update, ActivTrades are offering for trade four cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and Litecoin. These four are well known and well established coins with community support and trust and are considered by some as the index of the whole crypto market.

You can get access and trade them by using the native ActivTrades platform or MetaTrader. If you need more info, just visit HERE.


Thursday, January 18, 2018

EUR/AUD Breaks Support

Price has failed to continue bullish and form a clear higher high. Today we have seen a large bearish candle, which looks to be heading towards the 1.52150 key support (highlighted in blue). Market participants are watching this move closely as a break of this support would open up further downside space.

A break below current support would indicate that bears are ready to push the price down to the support level at 1.52. If that level is taken out, we could see the pair continue to drop to the area of 1.5090 which would make a double bottom and probably bounce off in attempt by the bulls to catch the trend reversal.

Major bear target is seen at 1.44 which is the lowest low since last year.

Chart: EUR/AUD D1


Wednesday, January 17, 2018

AUD/JPY Consolidation

The area of 89.000 is a key area within AUD/JPY. Price on the monthly timeframe is currently floating around this area and we are watching to see if price picks up the pace and breaks bullish or shows a push to the downside.

Through 2017 we did see price show bullish market structure, with a price printing a new higher low and higher high, however price seems to be struggling at the 89.000 resistance area.

If that resistance is taken out we could see it move to the next bull target at 104 and then 108. If bears win the battle, their first target is seen at 83.55 and then their major target for the short term would be 72, while long term bear target is seen at 55 creating a double bottom.

Chart: AUD/JPY M1


Tuesday, January 16, 2018

NZD/CAD Bullish

The chart below is NZD/CAD daily chart. Price over the last week has finally shown a break out of the ranging area and is now above the 0.90000 range resistance. We have seen the 20 & 50 EMA's cross to the upside, this is the first time since July 2017.

Price is also on the bullish side of the EMA's which is in favor of further bullish movement. So as mentioned, we have seen a breakout of the 0.90000 resistance however, we are yet to see a retest.

Price has formed a bearish candle on Friday, this is not a bearish engulfing however from here we could see price back down at 0.90000 resistance turned support for a retest. If we do see price back at the 0.90000 area, this could hint bullish price action with the target of 0.91900.

Chart: NZD/CAD D1


Monday, January 15, 2018

Economic Event Of The Week

The events of the week ahead are somehow light impact as we are heading into the third week of January. Today we have virtually no events happening as the financial center is having a day off due to national holiday, namely Martin Luther King, Jr Day.

For Tuesday we have the UK CPI data expected to remain somewhat unchanged from 3.1% to 3.0%.

Wednesday is heavier on events as there will be releases on EUR CPI, AUD Employment change and the most impactful - BoC Interest rate decision. Bank of Canada is expected to raise the Interest rate from 1.00% to 1.25%.

Thursday would bring us the ADP Nonfarm employment change in Canada and Friday is again lightweight with only the GBP Retail sales.

*All times are in EST.


Friday, January 12, 2018

Gold Rallies On

Gold has been in a rally since mid December last year. Price then was $1,236 and steadily kep climbing to today's high of $1,332. Currently, it's slightly lower at $1,331 but it seems that accumulation is still going strong.

What could be responsible for the price increase is that people who sold Gold for crypto are now back into Gold after Buffett went live and casted a big shadow on crypto saying that crypto markets are a bubble and it will end bad.

As a result, crypto markets are now 20% down while Gold is up and looks healthy to continue trading upwards.

It is true that people are selling their Gold to get into Bitcoin. If you consider doing the same, please look at fundamentals, market sentiment and behavior and always do your own research.

Chart: XAU/USD H4


Thursday, January 11, 2018

EUR/CAD Supported

Daily EUR/CAD analysis shows that the price has been supported at the medium term trend channel. The pair reached 1.4818 and immediately reacted bullishly going higher with as much as 300 pips to a high of 1.5129.

Price has not corrected a bit and is trading at 1.5105. Main trend on the medium term remains bullish with major bull target at 1.56 and mid milestones at 1.53 and 1.54.

On the other hand, a continuation of the downward move could lead the price lower to levels around 1.45. If the pair breaches 1.48 we could see an attempt to go lower with major bear target at 1.4050.

Chart: EUR/CAD H4


CAD/JPY Double Top

CAD/JPY's price is now showing a retracement. Market participants are watching for a potential new higher low to form at the support which looks like it could also align with the daily 20EMA. Keep watching for a long position if bullish price action is seen.

The double top was reached and now the pair seems to have turned. The reaching of the double top happened at 91.50 and since then the pair has been trading to the downside reaching a low of 88.50.

Main trend on the short term remains bearish as we continue to watch if price finds support. First level that could hold the pair could be seen at 87.35. On the flipside, we could see the pair climb to 90.00 before going even lower.

Chart: CAD/JPY H4


Tuesday, January 9, 2018

AUD/USD Close to Resistance

Take note of the above AUD/USD Daily analysis, we could now see a potential retracement from today's price action. A retracement would allow a new higher low, which is an area where you would want to be looking to buy this pair.

If the AUD bulls keep buying we could see a move to the upside with first potential target at 0.79 which would make a double top. This could be a good opportunity to go short with a close stop. If that level is taken out, the pair could continue climbing to next target at 0.80 and then 0.8120 as a third and major resistance.

On the other hand, a bearish move could drive price down to 0.75 as major support zone.

This week is not very heavy on the fundamental side and we could see a steady and organic progress towards one of the levels.

Chart: AUD/USD D1


Monday, January 8, 2018

NZD/USD Decision Point

Price within the above NZD/USD Daily chart has nearly reached back to the 0.71500 resistance area. For price to reach this area we saw a breakout of the ranging resistance of 0.69900. We have also seen price break onto the bullish side of all 3EMA's and our 20EMA has crossed over to the upside of the 50EMA.

From here we are watching how price is going to react at this 0.71500 area. Will we see a rejection or will we see a break? A rejection may lead to a new higher low. We are keeping a close watch of this pair to see whether price shows a break or rejection of the 0.71500 resistance.

If the pair breaks the resistance line at 0.71500 we could see an attempt to go to 0.7450 which would make a double top. On the other hand, a break below 0.70 could drive the price down to double bottom at support zone 0.68.

Chart: NZD/USD D1


Friday, January 5, 2018

MetaTrader 5 Platform

The most used and prominent platform for trading any kind of asset classes is available in the choices ActivTrades offers for their clients. It is available to use, of course, free of charge and has maybe the richest arsenal of indicators, analysis, patterns etc.

MetaTrader 5 is the latest MetaTrader platform with improved functionalities, contracts and markets. Some of the features you get by using MT5 with ActivTrades are unlimited charts, one click trading, economic news, small lot sizes, real time quotes.

The platform is available for desktop as well as mobile for both iOS and Android. If you're interested you can check it out now HERE.


Wednesday, January 3, 2018

EUR/AUD Consolidates

Taking a look at the EUR/AUD monthly timeframe, you can see we have highlighted a large part of the chart. This in fact the last four years of price movement. You should be able to see that the pair has not been showing any trending movement for a long while. A break out of this area would hopefully lead to a long term trend.

Looking at the broader picture, a break above 1.60 would take us outside of the resistance which is currently between 1.60 and 1.35. The pair has been in consolidation for years which is a long time for any currency pair to be trading sideways so we could expect a break above the resistance channel.

Major bull target is seen at 1.60 and above, while major bear target is seen at 1.35 and below.

Chart: EUR/AUD M1


Tuesday, January 2, 2018

EUR/GBP Uptrend

Here is the EUR/GBP monthly timeframe, where price is still technically printing higher highs and higher lows. Will this continue into 2018? Well we have seen the month of December close showing a rejection off the 0.87500 support area. Market participants may be looking for price to continue bullish from here and will be scaling down the timeframes to see further opportunity.

On the other hand, if price was to roll over to the downside and break the 0.87500 support we would need to wait and watch for the weekly market structure to change bearish. Major bear target on the long term scale is expected at 0.70 where it would make a triple bottom. Major bull target is expected at 0.96 where price has made a prior high in 2009.

Chart: EUR/GBP M1


Richard Dennis Quotes

Richard Dennis is a commodities speculator. He borrowed $1,600 and reportedly turned them into $200 million in about ten years. Here are some of his wisdom nuggets:

1) I always say you could publish rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.

2) Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80 percent as good as what we taught people. What they couldn’t do is give them the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad.

3) The market being in a trend is the main thing that eventually gets us in a trade. That is a pretty simple idea. Being consistent and making sure you do that all the time is probably more important than the particular characteristics you use to define the trend.

4) I learned to avoid trying to catch up or double up to recoup losses. I also learned that a certain amount of loss will affect your judgment, so you have to put some time between that loss and the next trade.

5) A good trend following system will keep you in the market until there is evidence that the trend has changed.


Monday, January 1, 2018

Economic Events of the Week

Today markets are closed due to official Holiday. Starting tomorrow, we are entering into the New Years' trading which would be filled with a lot of volatility and opportunities. Here are the most important events of the first trading week for 2018.

On Tuesday the German PMI data will be released and that could have a mild impact on the Euro trading pairs. Later in the day, the GBP PMI data would follow.

Wednesday is again filled with EUR and GBP data as well as the ISM PMI data coming from the US.

On Thursday we would see the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change which is expected to be at 190K.

And Friday is reserved for the most important US data - the NFPs and the jobs report. This would have a big impact on the market.