Silver Higher

Silver is trading higher in today's session after a minor loss posted yesterday. The precious metal has been on a winning streak since the end of December and is currently facing resistance in the face of 17.30. Main trend on the short-term remains bullish and if we get passed that 17.30 level we might see a continuation of the upward move with a renewed momentum.

If, however, bears succeed in bringing the price down at current levels, market participants might witness another move down to a probable first target of 16.23 and major bear target of 15.60.

Bulls will need a strong buy signal to get passed, while bears will only need lack of any signal to buy. The long-term trend looks optimistic so it's more likely that we could see a move to the upside to a major target at 17.60.   

Chart: XAG/USD D1

USD/CHF Below Parity

The Swiss Franc is once again more expensive than the US dollar. The long-term trend shows that the tendency for the last seven years has been predominantly in favor of the Swiss Franc. The pair had had a few parity break outs, however, but the US dollar has been incapable of moving much above the parity level.

The latest political decision of Donald Trump to ban all refugees for 120 days caused protests all over the States thus creating uncertainty and mistrust in Trump as their leader. If this spreads further, it might affect the currency and equity markets in a negative way and jeopardize the optimistic outlook market participants have for the US.

In light of this, the US dollar is now facing a double edged sword as the current economic and political events might very well define the future developments of the dollar against all its counterparts.

The Swiss Franc is the most appreciated currency against the dollar so far throughout the year as it registered a triple top at 1.0300. Current market price 0.9987.

Chart: USD/CHF D1

USD/JPY Up and Close to Resistance

USD/JPY is in an uptrend that started in the beginning of the week and has been going on since then. The pair registered a low of 112.56 and is now trading at 115.22 with a high of 115.30. US dollar bulls are faced with the first challenge to overcome the resistance at 115.65. If that level is broken then we might see the pair try to conquer 117 and even further.

On the other hand, market participants might sell the pair at current market price thus giving enough advantage to bears to reach their short-term target at 112.50 and form a triple bottom.

Some important news that may create volatility in the pair are the USD Gross Domestic Product and the USD Durable Goods Orders.

Chart: USD/JPY H4

GBP/CAD Lower

GBP/CAD is trading to the downside in today's session after an impressive rally made in the second half of January. The pair reached a high of 1.6624 a few days ago when it started declining as the trend exhausted. Since then, the pair has not been able to continue moving North and bears reached a low of 1.6405.

Currently, price is not too far away from the lowest low indicating that it may try to reach it as a support zone and first bear target. Should this happen, GBP/CAD might test the next support level at 1.6310.

On the other hand, PM Theresa May is about to hold talks with Pres Trump on agreements on mutual trade. The talks may have positive impact on the Sterling which would drive GBP/CAD up to a possible first target at 1.6680.

Chart: GBP/CAD H4

EUR/NOK Below Support

The Euro has been depreciating against its counterpart the Norwegian Krone. In the past few days the pair took a turn South and reached a low of 8.9470. Currently the pair is trading at 8.9522 and falls below the support line which rests at 8.9830.

The Euro bulls would need something strong and optimistic out of Draghi to keep them going, otherwise the single European currency is bound to fall.

EUR/NOK may find immediate support a bit lower than current level at 8.9200 which would form a fourth bottom with the last three dips to that level. 

Market sentiment remains bearish for the pair with 200SMA above price as another factor contributing to devaluation of the EUR/NOK.

Chart: EUR/NOK D1

GBP/CAD Rally On Hold

The Sterling made an impressive rally in less than two weeks going from a low of 1.5734 to a high of 1.6618. The rally started on the day when Theresa May, Britain's Prime Minister, made the announcement to withdraw from the single EU market and leave the EU in the "hard way". The speech turned out positive for the Sterling as investors saw a future of stable and growing independent UK economy. 

GBP/CAD was the pair that rallied the most out of all Pound pairs. This rally, however, might have come to a halt as price has now retreated to lower levels. The consolidation comes at a time when fundamentals are yet to reveal the near-term consequences of the policies performed by the UK government. Theresa May will be meeting with President Trump to discuss better UK-US relations in terms of trade, travel and work. These talks might create high volatility in the GBP/USD pair which can spread across various other GBP pairs.

Chart: GBP/CAD H4

Gold Double Top

Gold has been having a good start of 2017 with price up $70 from $1,149 to $1,219. The latest high came last week when Trump was officially inaugurated as the 45th President of the USA. Since then, Gold has had some troubles pushing higher and made a low at.$1,210. Price is now $1,211 and it would take a fresh touch backed by fundamentals in order for the pair to  continue North.

What's somehow worrisome for the Gold bulls is that Gold has reached the prior high level at $1,220 and retraced back below it thus forming a short-term double top. As of now, the double top is confirmed and market can try to go below the support level at $1,195.

If the precious metal reaches $1,200 bulls may consider this a buying opportunity and support the price. On the other hand, a breach below that level could indicate that bears are taking control over the market.

Chart: XAU/USD H4

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GBP/JPY On Its Way Up

GBP/JPY is in its fourth day of consecutive gains going from 136.40 to a high of 141.50. The pair reacted to the bullish remarks made by May in her speech to pursue a hard Brexit. Usually when traders and investors buy the Sterling, they sell the Yen causing it to depreciate against all of its peers.

In the case of GBP/JPY, market participants favored the Sterling and what we currently observe is the continuation of the move that started a few days ago. The short-term outlook looks bullish only if bulls manage to push through the 200SMA that is occurring in current market price. A few attempts have proved successful in the near-past so bulls still have the advantage.

On the other hand, the inauguration of Trump might turn out to be a bearish signal for the US dollar, as we already saw a 10% rise in US equities and it's unlikely that the move can hold on much longer. In light of this, what could be happening is buy the election, sell the inauguration, in which case, the Yen might again start to appreciate.

In other news, in less than a day we will witness how Trump becomes President! Markets are anticipating the historical event and high volatility can be expected.

Chart: GBP/JPY D1

GBP/USD Higher After May's Speech

The Sterling took off after Theresa May's speech to pursue a hard Brexit and exit the common EU market. Traders and investors apparently believed in her words that a hard Brexit would be positive for the UK as the country expects to come out stronger than when they were a part of the EU. She emphasized that an exit from the EU is not an exit from Europe and would pursue to keep an open market between the UK and the EU.

All of this signaled a buy and the Sterling valued against all its competitors. GBP/USD reached a high of 1.2415 a few hours after the speech, up from 1.1985.

Currently, minor selling has occurred which is probably some profit-taking and the pair has devalued to 1.2270. The move, worth noting, was a reflection on May's outlook for the future and not actual facts so the retrace can be expected to continue.

Chart: GBP/USD H4

GBP/AUD Close To Support

GBP/AUD is trading close to major support at 1.5750. The pair is in its worst performance since the beginning of September 2015 when it started going downhill. Then in mid-2016 Brexit came and made things worse and now the pair is at a 4 year low. The last time GBP/AUD reached below 1.60 was in 2013 when it bottomed out at 1.4380.

Now the pair is trading at 1.6150 as bulls find it hard to push above the 200SMA at 1.76. They tried to go higher in the last two months of 2016 and made it to 1.72 but bears took the stage again and now the near future of the Sterling looks fragile.

Today we have important news coming out of Britain - GBP Consumer Price Index. If it's good, then we should see the Sterling go higher, but if not, the major support level is exposed to bear attacks.

Chart: GBP/AUD D1

Can Trump Deliver on his Promises?

Dow Jones hit an all time high after Trump won the Presidential elections. The index reached just five points shy of 20,000 and is currently trading at 19,852. The skyrocket rally occured due to the high expectations of market participants that Trump will actually make America great again. The reality, however, does not have anything to do with the latest rally in US stocks. Earning reports are not that impressive and job growth is at the same place as pre-election times.

Inflated expectations allowed the US companies to improve their earnings performance, but eventually reality may not be able to keep up with expectations. After a twilight period the price trend may be reversed. If Trump does not manage to sustain the rapid growth in US equities prices, the problems will surface and the earnings will collapse.

US companies and hedge funds are optimistic about the Trump presidency as he has surrounded himself with the intellectual and financial elite. In light of this, all the great minds that run the capitalist world are gathered under one roof towards one common goal - the wellbeing of the United States. All of this suggests that what we are about to see will be game changing.

Chart: DJ30/USD D1

AUD/USD Might Be At a Turning Point

AUD/USD registered a good move to the upside in the last couple of weeks going from a low 0.7159 to a high of 0.7520. The move comes after the pair has been declining in price due to the 14 year high US dollar. Even that was not enough to keep the Australian dollar bulls from taking control over the pair. The australian currency rose significantly on good economic data thus putting an end to the dominance of the Greenback.

The rise of the AUD, however, might have come to an end as the pair has reached a resistance level created by a double top that has the potential to turn the trend. AUD/USD is already lower after meeting resistance at 0.7515 and is now trading at 0.7485. Another factor that can influence the price is the 200SMA that lays at the same level of resistance.

If the pair closes the last day of the week with an inverted hammer candle it would be a good sign that we might witness further depreciation next week.

Chat: AUD/USD D1

USD/CAD Below Support

USD/CAD is trading below the long-term support and just about to touch the 200SMA. The pair broke the support level at 1.3160 and continued to the downside to reach a low of 1.3125. The low comes after the US dollar advanced to a high of 1.36 against its peer and then took a turn South.

Yesterday's speech of Donald Trump influenced the US currency market and the US dollar depreciated against its competitors. Today it seems that the move is likely to continue as there would be no major news that can change the direction of the market.

Current market price is 1.3127 and we are only some 30 points away from the 200SMA. If bears are able to push price below that level we might see selling to accelerate to potential target below 1.30.

On the other hand, the 200SMA might be used by the bulls to bounce off as a strong support level and go back above the support at 1.32.

Chart: USD/CAD D1

USD/JPY Steady

USD/JPY continues to trade sideways with price fluctuating around 116 in recent days. The pair registered a close to one year high in December reaching up to 118.66. After that high, however, bears stepped in and ended the multi-month rally that started from 98.85.

Price is now 116.09 as consolidation continues. First bull target is seen at 117.39 while first bear target is below the lowest low at 115.05.

We are only 10 days away from the Inauguration of Donald Trump and that event can cause heavy volatility in the US equity and currency market.

As to USD/JPY, traders might attempt to reach major resistance zone at 121.00. In that case, bears are expected to react and push price down.

Chart: USD/JPY D1

Gold at 1.5 Month High

Gold registered a new high today going above $1,190 for the first time since 30 November last year. The precious metal has been gaining in price since 15 December when it reached a low of $1,123 and then started going North.

Although the asset looks clearly bullish, going long for the short-term might turn out to be a bad choice. The odds are still in favor of the US dollar as we approach the Inauguration day when Donald Trump will officially be elected as President of the United States. In light of this, markets might react excesivelly volatile without any reasoning behind it.

Best decision would be to remain cautiously optimistic and observe the turn of events with a clear head to not fall prey to the desire for quick money on news trading.

Current Gold price is trading at resistance and if bulls want to continue their rally they need to go above the psychological $1,200 in order for them to have an edge against their peers.

Chart: XAU/USD H4

Silver at Resistance

Silver has made considerable progress over the last few days going from a low of 15.61 to a high of 16.71. The asset, however, remains in bearish teritorry as Silver bulls must go through the resistance level at 16.70 or bears will take over again and push prices further down.

Silver reached a 2016 high in the beginning of July when price skyrocketed to 21.11 and then gradually started to wear off as the dollar gained strength. Expectations are for the US dollar to pick up the momentum and continue to appreciate.

Some experts even say that the move in the US dollar has not even started yet and that they expect a huge move to the upside around the time of inauguration of Donald Trump in less than two weeks.

If that is the case, then Silver along with Gold are poised to go lower. On the other hand, it takes just a spark to make precious metals go off to new highs.

Chart: XAG/USD D1

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Gold Up On Weaker Dollar

Gold is up with $13 overnight as dollar is trading weaker. US dollar is selling off over the last couple of days which caused the yellow metal to rally from $1,150 to a high of $1,177. Overall the long term outlook is very optimistic for the dollar with rising rates in 2017, Trump's strong administration and this would cause headwinds for the greenback and weak environment for Gold and metals overall.

That being said, the current depreciation of the dollar can be seen as a correction which helped Gold bugs to jump on in the trade to a 4 week high. EUR/USD is now at 1.0557, USD/JPY is at 116.18 and USD/CHF is gravitating towards 1.0167.

The correction is due to the release of the latest FOMC Minutes which sounded hawkish with increased risk on higher pricing and that drove market participants away from the dollar. But on Friday we get to know the latest NFP's and jobless claims and that would definitely leave an impact on market conditions.

Chart: XAU/USD D1

USD/CHF Undecided

USD/CHF continues its range bound trading in the early opening hours today. The pair went close to a parity last week when the flash crash took place and then climbed up again to reach a high of 1.0335 in yesterday's session. The move is still not over as the stronger US dollar once again is flexing muscles.

Partially, the stronger dollar is the effect of Trump's tweet yesterday that US manufacturers should contain their production within the borders of the United States or face high taxes. That caused Ford to cancel a $1.6B deal to manufacture in Mexico.

This move by Donald Trump was seen as a decisive and bold presidential act that got a lot of media attention. As it seems, Trump is already taking control over the economy a couple of weeks before he is officialy sworn as the President of the United States.

With this kind of determined and goal oriented measures, the President elect has a great chance to boost the US dollar into record breaking levels.

Chart: USD/CHF D1

The Dollar On the Run Again

The US dollar is making a strong comeback in the first week of trading for 2017. The US currency is up against all competitors, most significantly against the euro, japanese yen and swiss franc.

All three pairs registered a move in favor of the US dollar in the second trading day for 2017 with slightly boring first day of trading for the year. However, today the EUR/USD went below 1.04 again, when a few days earlier it reached 1.0650. The swiss franc reached 1.0050 and is now back just a few points shy of 1.0300. And the japanese yen is yet again depreciated with price above 118 for a dollar.

All this comes as President elect Trump is about to step into office with his just formed administration full of financial and technological experts that are expected to take the US economy into the next level with more jobs created, tax cuts, spending cuts, higher rates and all that good stuff.

All this can infact be very dangerous for the US economy as this actually sets the bar really high and thus it would be very difficult to meet those expectations.

Chart: EUR/USD D1

USD/CHF Still At Resistance

USD/CHF is showing strong bullish impulses that turned out to be very tough for the bears to beat. Last week the pair was impacted by the so called reverse flash crash in the euro. Then, the EUR/USD went to a high of 1.0650 and the USD/CHF slipped to 1.0050.

In light of this, right before the crash, the pair was trading at a double top which was a strong bearish signal indicating that a move to the downside is probable. The move came and the pair reached close to parity when out of nowhere the bulls stepped in and saved the day.

The pair has now recovered more than half of the decline from last week and is trading at 1.0220. If bulls manage to push the price above major resistance at 1.0330 we might see further appreciation of the US dollar.

We are just less than three weeks before Donald J Trump steps into office. This might result in high volatility in the markets due to the high expectations people have for Trump's presidency and administration.

Chart: USD/CHF D1