USD/JPY Volatile

In the late August the Japanese Yen entered a period of high volatility amidst rising tensions between North Korea and Japan, namely the provocation with the passing ballistic rocket above Japan. In light of this, the Japanese Yen has depreciated against its counterparts.

The USD/JPY registered a climb from 108.26 to a high of 110.16. The pair is now trading at 109.91 as traders and investors are on the look for potential triggers that can make them take the defensive side and sell the Yen.

As to the downside, if the situation settles, we can expect to see the pair reach the support zone at 108.80. The trading environment in all markets now is significantly uncertain as we are entering September and market participants are anticipating new developments, events and policies that will hint a direction where the world economy is headed.

Chart: USD/JPY H4

Gold Up on Geopolitical Risks

Gold is trading to the upside with a gap in the opening Asian session. The precious metal went from $1,291 do a high of $1,325 on geopolitical risks amidst tension between North Korea and Japan. Investors fled to to safety as North Korea launched a missile into the Japanese region Tohoku.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that the ballistic missile passed over the northern end of Japan. Local government urged people in the area to take refuge in solid buildings or shelters.

The tension between the two countries left investors seeking safety that only Gold can offer. The precious metal is now trading at $1,321, close to its daily high. The last time Gold reached that level was during the Presidential elections on Nov 9 last year.

Upside potential now appears heavily influenced by fundamentals.

Chart: XAU/USD D1

NZD/CAD Keeps Sliding

The Canadian dollar is showing massive signs of strength while other currencies are struggling to post gains in the warm summer months. NZD/CAD reached levels around 0.90 and is currently trading at 0.9026.

The Canadian dollar has been flexing muscles since the beginning of June when the NZD/CAD pair was 0.9780. CAD/JPY has gone up substantially during the same period of time going from 80.80 to 89.80. USD/CAD also registered major drop with more than 10 cents.

The Canadian dollar rally seems far from over as it has already broken a few support lines to the downside and a few resistance lines to the upside.

As to the NZD/CAD, support is expected at 0.8830. Second support is seen at 0.8500. On the upside potential is limited to first bull target at 0.9200.

Chart: NZD/CAD D1

USD/CAD at Its Low Point Again

The US dollar is having a bad month this August as the currency is seemingly experiencing great difficulties while trying to preserve its top spot in the currency market. The USD/CAD reached a low today below 1.2450 and is now trading slightly higher at 1.2453.

The strong support zone at 1.2450 has been broken several times and now the pair looks more likely than not to pursue levels around 1.2350-1.2300. If that is the case then the long-term support can be expected to hold the bears at the level of 1.2350.

If not, then bears would have the advantage and go below the support with first target at 1.2300, second at 1.1940 and third at 1.06 as a major support zone.

No news are expected today and we can enjoy a calm and non-volatile start of the last week of August.

Chart: USD/CAD D1

NZD/CAD Breaks Support

NZD/CAD broke the support line visible best on the daily chart. The pair went below 0.92 in the beginning of the week. Major bear target is now seen at 0.85 level on the long term. Short and medium term bear goals are 0.90 and 0.89. If the bear scenario becomes a reality, the Canadian dollar could be regarded as one of the most appreciated currencies for the year.

It made a strong rally against the US dollar with more than 10 cents, and the effect can be felt all over the market.

NZD/CAD price is trading below the 200SMA which suggests that the pair is neutral to bearish and further depreciation can be expected. Monitoring for the levels is now the most important decision in anticipation of further moves.

Chart: NZD/CAD D1

GBP/USD Moves Lower

The Sterling is having a time of depreciation this month as GBP/USD is down from 1.3260 to around 1.28. Main trend on the short term is strongly bearish. The pair does not even have a chance to go up as the British economy appears to be dragging behind expectations.

Fundamentals aside, technicals are showing a confirmation of the weak economic state of the British Kingdom. The pair was bought out at the highest point which reached the resistance level in the upward medium term trading channel and immediately Sterling bears took the opportunity and shorted the pair.

Now they are hoping to get to the resistance level first at the 200SMA at 1.2640 and second at the lower line of the upward trading channel at 1.2430.

Chart: GBP/USD D1

Gold at Triple Top

Gold has been saturating the area between $1,300 and $1,200 for the past six months as price is having a hard time going above the psychological level of $1,300. Currently Gold is hovering around $1,280-$1,285 which makes it vulnerable to bear attacks.

If the lack of stimulation in the Gold market continues, we can expect Gold prices to turn their direction yet again to the downside. Given how big of an impact Bitcoin is having and how rapidly it is growing in market cap, a big chunk of Gold investors might allocate their capital in the cryptocurrency market.

Should this be true, then we can expect Gold prices to reach major support at $1,200 in the near future. On the other hand, one thing is for sure - even if Bitcoin ceases to exist, Gold will be there ready to take investors on the safe side at any given time.

Chart: XAU/USD D1

USD/JPY Lower

USD/JPY fell below 110 for a second time this month as YEN bulls are pushing the currency higher. Some experts even predict that we might see USD/JPY below 100 this year as a result of a strong Yen. Whatever the case may be, it is obvious that the pair is in a downtrend that started after the short-lived post-presidential rally.

The pair is now 109.28, well below the 200SMA and dangerously close to the support at 108.13 for a potential double bottom. The 108.13 is now regarded as a first bear target. Beneath it, the levels around 106.20-107 make for a good support on the medium term.

On the other hand, if the US dollar gains new strength, the pair could reach the 200SMA at 112.50 as first bull target. After that, we can see price reach 113.70-114 as major medium term bull target.

Chart: USD/JPY D1

Silver in Consolidation

Silver has been trading relatively still for the past few days as price is having difficulties advancing to higher levels. Price is now slightly below $17.00 currently trading at 16.93. Main trend on the long term is bearish as price is struggling to go above the 200SMA at 16.95.

If this week the precious metal closes above $17 we would have strong chances for a continuation of the upward move in the near and medium term.

Coincidentally, Silver is also at the support-turned-resistance level and that combined with the 200SMA indicates a major turning point for Silver.

Above $17, major bull targets are $18, $18.80 and $21. On the opposite side - $15.80, $14.55 and $13.

Chart: XAG/USD D1

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Japanese Equities Go Down

Within the chart we have seen price break out of the long term sideways range within the JPN225 index. Price has broken out of the range to the downside where it is now sitting at the 19650 support.

If we see bearish continuation from here breaking through the support, trendline and inchimoku cloud, then we will be looking for some sort of retest for a potential short market entry order. Patience at the moment is the key as we could be having a potential opportunity within this market.

Below 19400 we would have gone below the support and that could expose the Japanese equity market to more bearish pressure with big downside potential.

Key area would be the 19500 level for a make it or break it movement.

Chart: JPN225 D1

GBP/CHF Declines

Yesterday we posted the GBP/CHF daily analysis, where we mentioned the potential for price to form bullish price action. Taking a early look through the charts its easy to see that the 1.26340 support didn't hold and price has fallen through with a large amount of movement. It is advisable to be further patient with this pair.

If the movement continues to go South, we could see bears bring the price to a potential low of 1.2230, which would then form a triple bottom and put in motion the bullish support.

On the other hand, bulls might now decide it's time to buy in and get their long positions ready at a time where the pair is touching the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement.

Consider also the fact that the pair os now below the 200SMA and this a good bearish signal.

Chart: GBP/CHF D1

GBP/CHF Range Trading

GBP/CHF has been trading to the downside for the past few days, right after price had recently shown a breakout to the upside which had led to price printing a new higher high. Price last week showed a bearish engulfing which has led to a retracement.

As we have seen a recent higher high, we are looking for the retracement to print a new higher low. Since price showed the most recent bullish move, this has led the 20 EMA to cross bullish with the 50EMA, price has also broken above the 200EMA when price broke the 1.26340 resistance now support.

Price is currently sitting at the resistance turned support at the 38.20% Fibonacci level, which also aligns with the 200EMA. We are watching this pair for bullish price action to signal continuation to the upside.

Chart: GBP/CHF D1

GBP/NZD Hesitates

GBP/NZD has been trading in the range between 1.7880 and 1.7420. With price currently stuck between resistance and support, market participants are expecting a break patiently waiting for price to show a clean break and retest either way to indicate further direction.

It could be said, however, that market sentiment favors the downside after seeing a recent rejection from the resistance area. Market participants now target the next support or resistance depending on the direction of the breakout.

If it breaks to the upside we could see price climb to first bull target at 1.8280. On the other hand, a break below the support could spark the bear momentum and drive the price to first bearish target at 1.7155.

Chart: GBP/NZD D1

GBP/USD Moves Lower

So over the last week price within the above GBP/USD chart has shown some bearish momentum which has led price back to the broken 1.30400 resistance turned support. Price has closed at this support which leaves us with two possibilities, a break or a rejection.

The market structure currently is printing higher highs and higher lows however, continuation through the 1.30400 support and past the previous higher low at 1.29365 would lead to a lower low with price heading towards the next support at 1.27700.

In both cases, market participants would need a boost from the fundamentals in order for the pair to regain its momentum. It is still to early to confirm a change in trend, however, it is worth noticing that the Sterling has taken a sizable chunk of the the US dollar lately, going from 1.10 to 1.30.

Chart: GBP/USD D1

USDOLLAR Index Goes Up

USDOLLAR Index chart shows an attempt to recover from the massive losses that have occurred since the beginning of the year. Price recently (last week) has shown a rejection from the 11855 support. This has formed a lower low and we are now watching for a new lower high to form.

We have confluence at the 11980 support turned resistance, which aligns with the daily 20EMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. We will be watching to see if price forms a new lower high at this point, to continue bearish for a new lower low.

Clearly, this has been the year of the Euro, as its main counterpart, the US dollar has declined from 12700ish to below 11900. This could be an attempt to turn the market sentiment and go after the gains.

Chart: USDOLLAR D1

AUD/NZD Moves Up

AUD/NZD has shown on the daily timeframe that it's been getting a lot of mixed signals in a choppy trading environment. Price recently broke our of the descending trendline to the upside, which led price bullish into forming a new higher high.

Since price formed the higher high, it has retraced back to the downside where we have seen a new higher low form including a rejection from the EMA's. The EMA's have now crossed over bullish. As price is now heading back to the upside, we are watching for a break and retest of the 1.07550 resistance area for a long position.

A break and retest with bullish price action would warrant a long order. It is best to look for price to reach the 1.09600 resistance in order to make a decision whether to open a position within this pair.

Chart: AUD/NZD D1

UK100 Bullish

Price within the UK100 index has shown some bullish movement after we saw price show a break of the ascending trendline. Price has broken back above the ascending trendline, and the 7455 resistance. As price has now shown a bullish break, we are looking for it to continue and print a retest of the 7455 area for a potential long position.

In that case we could see it go further to the upside as this would also signal an improvement in the UK economy. However, given the current economic condition of the UK, we might as well consider the possibility of the UK100 going down in accordance with the UK currency that is also depreciating these past days.

Below 7300, market sentiment would turn from bullish to bearish and we can expect major bear target at 7100. On the upside, first bull target is seen at 7520, second is 7600.

Chart: UK100 D1

GBP/AUD Depreciating

GBP/AUD on the daily chart shows a good bearish signal. A few days ago we began monitoring pair for a move to the area of 1.67000 in expectation for price to show a potential new lower high rejection. This area has confluence of our EMA's and the50% Fibonacci retracement.

At the end of last week we have seen price show the rejection we were looking for, which was helped by the BoE news. Now, the candle is very bearish , so we will wait and see how tomorrows candle closes for next week.

Oddly enough, there are no news this week that could cause a stir in the Sterling except Thursday's Manufacturing Production. This could lead the pair further South as market participants await fresh news in order to gain an understanding of how the UK economy is performing.

Chart: GBP/AUD D1

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GBP/AUD Moves To The Upside

GBP/AUD is now expected to draw a new daily lower high point. We have confluence at the 1.67000 resistance which aligns with the 50% retracement level. At this area we could see bearish price action signaling a new lower high. It is best to wait patiently to see if price shows a new lower high, for a shorting opportunity.

In such a case, bears would be looking to drive the pair down to first target area at the 0% Fibonacci at 1.6274. If that level is taken out, 1.5850 becomes an opportunity as this would create a double bottom and potentially change the downward trend to the upside.

Currently, price is around 1.66 as market sentiment remains bearish. If the 50% Fib is taken out, we could see price go to the 61.80% and rebound from the resistance line on the medium term.

Chart: GBP/AUD D1

Nikkei225 Consolidated

The JPN225 Index, also known as Nikkei 225 is currently holding between the range of 20200 and 19800. As price is currently stuck within a range between a small descending trendline and support, market participants are anticipating the next big move in the Japanese economy in order to determine their direction.

Watching and waiting patiently for a breakout to be able to take a potential trading opportunity could be the best possible trading decision right now. A break to the upside could have more potential than going below the support, however it is best to wait for a confirmation in the chart.

Knowing how interconnected Japan is to Bitcoin, it would be interesting to see if today's hard fork news will leave any impact on the Japanese Index.

Chart: Nikkei225 D1