Gold Up

Gold posted some gains after the expected US dollar correction. The precious metal traded heavily on the downside last week and only on Friday did it manage to gain some strength and push through the bearish resistance to post a green candle.

Last week we saw the US dollar appreciate rapidly after comments by ECB President Mario Draghi on future outlook on EU policy. EUR/USD lost some 200 points in the day of announcement and continued to trade in the low range below 1.1580-1.1630.

Now that the US dollar is going through a correction, Gold has the chance to shine again,if only for a while. The recent gains do not seem appealing and the precious metal is still vulnerable to bear attacks. Price shoot up from $1,263 to $1,278 but now it's trading at $1,274.

If price breaks support at $1,260 then we might be heading towards long term support at $1,250. If that level is broken, then we might close the year below $1,200.

Chart: XAU/USD H4

NZD/USD Below Long Term Support

Hard times currently for the New Zealand dollar as the currency depreciated rapidly after political turmoil rattled their financial stability. The above chart is the weekly analysis of NZD/USD.

Market sentiment is overall bearish and seems to be looking for more bearish movement. A break of the current support would lead to potential further shorting opportunities. However we could see a daily lower high which would also be a nice area for a shorting position.

Below 0.68 the bearish movement is expected to continue progressing. Currently the pair is still being sold due to uncertainty and lack of stability. As soon as we have some concrete information about further political and economical development in New Zealand the pair could enjoy some buying that could recover the price to levels close to the 200SMA.

Chart: NZD/USD W1

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GBP/USD Slightly Up

The GBP/USD pair is trading slightly to the upside as price found the support needed to stabilize itself into the uptrend. The price found support at 1.3100 and then reached as high as 1.3227 before heading down to lower levels.

Currently, it's trading around 1.3200 as uncertainty still remains the predominant market emotion. We would need price to close above 1.3250 in order for the bullish move to continue. On the other hand, if price breaks the support at 1.3120 we are likely to see a continuation of the bearish short-term trend.

Major bear target is seen at 1.3050, while major bull target is seen at 1.3350. The pair has been trading sharply to the downside these past few weeks so we might be in for a corrective rally that would stabilize the price.

Chart: GBP/USD H4

Gold Close To Support

Gold is trading relatively close to the support level of $1,272 which could spark bullish interest in the precious metals driving the price up. Recently, it's been difficult for Gold to gain momentum although attempts are not lacking.

The latest move to the upside came in the beginning of October when price reached the level of $1,262 and immediately launched to what would later become a $42 rally.

Now, however, things look more uncertain as the precious metal is feeling weak in the shadow of the strengthening US dollar. As we are heading to December, the Fed is expected to raise rates again which could stimulate the US currency and create lack of demand for Gold.

Chart: XAU/USD H4

USD/CAD Breaks Resistance

The long awaited break to the upside from the USD/CAD pair has finally been done. The Canadian dollar went through a disappointing news release on Friday when retail sales turned out to be negative 0.7% instead of the expected positive 0.3%.

The effect was a massive sell off of the pair which resulted in a rally in USD/CAD. The pair gained more than a cent going from 1.2477 to 1.2637 in less than a day.

Currently, it is still gravitating towards its highest point as the pair is now above the medium term resistance that started with the downfall in the beginning of May this year.

First bull target is seen at 1.2665. If bulls take this out, next one comes at 1.2780. Important news are scheduled this week, so paying attention to fundamentals is key.

Chart: USD/CAD H4

US Index Breaks Resistance

On the daily analysis of the US Dollar Index it is clear that price has breached the medium term resistance on the downward trend. As you can see we have highlighted the market structure. Price was forming lower highs and lower lows until recent when we saw price show a break out of the trendline to the upside.

This formed a higher high as shown, price then came back to the downside and formed a higher low. Since we have seen price slowly make its way into bullish territory, showing a strong push to the upside on Friday.

Price is above the 20 & 50 EMA's with only one bullish rejection on Friday. If price continues to the upside, the 20 & 50 EMA's will cross bullish, as they are already touching. The next barrier in the way for the US Dollar index is the daily 200EMA. Then we have the 12125 resistance.

Chart: US Index D1

USD/CAD Sharply Up

The USD/CAD pair reacted sharply to the disappointing news from Canada. Core Retail Sales turned out to be much lower than expected as previous data states 0.2%, expected data stood at 0.3% but real data came out to be -0.7%. The Canadian dollar was immediately sold sharply which spurred a whirlwind of volatility in the currency pairs involving CAD.

USD/CAD is up at 1.2590 from a low of 1.25 prior the release. CAD/JPY is down some half of a cent. EUR/CAD is also up substantial from 1.4760 to a high of 1.4830.

The news are still having an impact as CAD bears are heavily selling the pair by large volumes. The USD/CAD can be expected to find resistance at the area 1.2660-1.2670. If that level is passed, the area around 1.28 is the next target for the USD bulls.

Chart: USD/CAD H4

AUD/NZD Rises Sharply

The AUD/NZD pair rose sharply in the early pre-opening European hours as New Zealand shunned the incumbent National Party in favor of a coalition government with the Labour Party. This rose fears over central bank policy and long term growth.

The New Zealand dollar is down against all other currencies. NZD/USD is down 1.8%, NZD/CHF is down 2.35%, NZD/JPY also above 2% down.

AUD/NZD is trading some 250 pips higher today, rising with 2.31%. The initial reaction is still not over as the pair is still getting sold all over the market. However, the volumes have been decreasing which indicates that the selling wave is coming to an end. A corrective wave might be expected that will bring some stabilizing to the New Zealand dollar.

Chart: AUD/NZD H4

EUR/USD Ahead of Draghi Speech

The EUR/USD is trading somewhat unchanged today gravitating towards 1.1760 in anticipation of the speech by Mario Draghi, the ECB President. The speech will most likely give indications how does the EU stand in terms of stability and future outlook and where the EU economy is headed.

Market sentiment remains bullish for the Euro as technically, the Euro is well positioned and it's stable enough to continue onto its second attempt to conquer the 1.20 level. If we hear positive news from President Draghi, bulls will not hesitate to jump in heavier and push price further up to first bull target at 1.1890. Second bull target is seen at 1.20 and third bull target is seen at the latest high at 1.2092.

On the other hand, a failure to meet market participants' expectations of a positive message, bears might attempt to take control and push it down to last low at 1.1736.

Chart: EUR/USD D1

GBP/USD Recovers

GBP/USD is trading to the upside this week as market participants' expectations improve but yet remain cautious about the forthcoming negotiations with the European Union on the Brexit talks. Some researchers predict a catastrophic scenario for the Sterling if they fail to reach an agreement. A fail indeed remains as an option which could actually push the Sterling some 15 cents lower against the US dollar.

On the other hand, however, traders and investors are on the accelerator anticipating that a consensus will be reached and the UK currency will have its chance to appreciate against the dollar.

Whatever the case, current market momentum is predominantly bullish ever since the beginning of the year climbing from 1.19 in January to its highest high at 1.36574 in September.

Chart: GBP/USD H4

EUR/CAD Bearish

On the daily timeframe where EUR/CAD has been forming bearish market structure printing lower highs and lower lows. Recently price showed a rejection off the 1.4470 area which gave it a push back to the upside.

This has not led to the market structure changing, so we are still watching for an overall lower high. As you can see price has current reached as far as the Ichimoku cloud which aligns closely with the 1.48683 resistance. From this area we have seen two rejection candles followed by indecision.

From here we can see the potential of price heading bearish. The weekly candle has also closed showing selling pressure which is a nice further confluence. Bears' first target would be at the 1.43744 support which price came close to previously, this would also form a new lower low.

Chart: EUR/CAD D1

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Japanese Index Higher

The Japanese Index is trading to the upside as market participants are pushing the price to the all-time high. Price is now gravitating towards the 20800 level which is just a few point shy from the history high 20900. Although the price now feels a bit wobbly, bulls are determined to try and overcome the all-time high.

As the Japanese economy is progressing steadily, fundamentally the outlook is in favor of the higher stock market. If we can get above the history high, bears' attempts to turn the trend could prove futile. Until we get there, however, chances for an inflection point still remain.

Overall market trend is predominantly bullish, both fundamentally with good economic development, and technically with good indications that signal for more growth such as price above the 200SMA and a healthy move to the upside accompanied by corrections.

Chart: JPN IDX D1

USD/CHF Edges Lower

The USD/CHF pair is trading to the downside so far this week as the US dollar is posting losses against major competitors. The Swiss Franc is appreciating only slightly as we have not yet seen the full impact by the disappointing US report on Friday.

USD/CHF appears poised to go to the downside, as the US dollar has already lost significant points against the Euro, the Sterling and the Yen. The Swiss Franc is yet to follow in their footsteps on the path of appreciation.

How much exactly, depends on the market. As the move is now in its initial stages, we can expect more bears to pile up and push the price down below 0.9760. Anything below that would indicate that the pair is ready to move lower. Major bear target is seen at the triple bottom at 0.9438.

Unless we get some fresh positive news on the US outlook, market sentiment on the pair remains bearish.

Chart: USD/CHF H4

Gold Higher

Gold is trading higher today after a disappointing US report on Friday. Jobs created came out negative 33K and this sent the US dollar sharply lower. Gold as a safe haven enjoyed a move to the upside initially with some $15.

Currently, Gold is trading at $1,288, marking a $28 move since its bottom at $1,260. If the trend catches on, more Gold bugs will get on thus pushing the price to first target at $1,315. Second major bull target is seen at $1,335 and major bull target is seen at the latest high at $1,360.

If $1,360 is taken out, then we might conclude that the bearish short-term trend is over and the new upward trend has initiated.

Silver is also posting gains as the metal is now trading at $17.09, up from a low of $16.35.

Chart: XAU/USD H4

EUR/USD Bounced Off Two Fib Levels

The EUR/USD pair saw a significant reaction by the market on Friday when the US released mixed results on the economy. Jobs created was a negative 33, while wages growth turned out to be higher than expected - 0.5% vs 0.3%.

This divergence in the economy initially boosted the US dollar while sending Gold and Silver in the red. However, after a few hours, the trend turned and the US started the depreciation process. EUR/USD touched upon both the long-term Fibonacci and the short-term Fibonacci levels, which happen to coincide in the 1.1698 to 1.1678 range. The long term downward Fib level is the 38.2%, while the short-term upward level is 23.6%.

EUR/USD is seeing optimism from the market going as high as 1.1747, currently trading at 1.1742. The pair might continue to trade higher if the Fed does not move in December, as analysts are predicting that the rate hike is in the bag to be used before year end.

Chart: EUR/USD H4

AUD/USD Supported by Bulls

The AUD/USD pair was trading to the downside for quite a while going from 0.8120 to a low of 0.77851. Immediately after touching the lowest low, bulls took control and the pair sky rocketed to a high of 0.7875. Main trend on the short-term has shifted from bearish to bullish.

Today's NFP and Jobs data will give an indication where the US dollar is headed and this could result in either a boost to sustain current AUD/USD direction or a push down to prior lower levels.

Whatever the case, until then the pair remains bullish with big potential to the upside. Major bull target is seen around 0.8150 while major bear target is seen at 0.7650.

The pair has been on its uptrend for most of the year as the move up started mid-May and since then bulls have been in charge.

Chart: AUD/USD H4

USD/CHF Rejected at Resistance

After another attempt to break the resistance, the USD/CHF pair was rejected at the level of 0.9765. Multiple attempts have been made by the bulls to break the resistance level but not a single one of them was successful.

Currently, price is trading around 0.9750 which is still close to breaking the highest high of 0.9780 but also falls below the resistance which give bears the advantage of stronger momentum.

Friday's NFP and Jobs data will leave an impact on the pair and that will give us a hint where the price is headed next. Until then, market sentiment remains bullish with price printing higher highs and higher lows.

Chart: USD/CHF H4

Silver Climbs Up

Silver is currently trading at 16.74, up from 16.53 yesterday when it exited the lower trendline on the four hour chart. Highest it went was 16.80 in the early trading hours today and then succumbed to lower levels. Price is now on the lower trendline again this time on the upper side. This indicates that bulls are still trying to bring it up and recover the upper trend.

Should they be successful, we will see Silver going to first bull target at 17.00, second target is seen at 17.30 and third target is seen at 17.40.

On the other hand, a failure to bring the price back will result in a second exit from the trend channel and a potential sell-off that could lead to first bear target at lowest low of 16.53. Second target is seen at 16.30 and third target is seen at 16.00.

Chart: XAG/USD H4

AUD/JPY At Support

AUD/JPY daily chart is currently at a very key point. Price has retraced back down to the ascending trendline and is showing indecision. Price from here is either going to show a break or a rejection. If we see a break then we would want to see a continuation with a break and retest for a short position.

However should we see a rejection, then we would be looking for bullish price action following Friday's Doji close. The monthly candle of September has closed showing slight selling pressure, but price is above all three monthly EMA's.

We are watching price on the daily timeframe to see if price shows a break or rejection. This week is packed with fundamentals on both sides so it would be interesting to observe how the pair react to every event.

Chart: AUD/JPY D1

DAX Rallies

The DAX analysis on the daily timeframe shows a renewed optimism to the German economy. Recently we have seen a strong bullish push after price was rejected by the daily 200EMA. This gave price the momentum to break above the descending trendline and also break through the 12375 resistance.

Price is now at the 12825 resistance. The monthly candle close for September has closed very strongly bullish and we are now looking for a break retest of the 12825 resistance for further bullish momentum.

Even the VW stock rallied after new findings that more people are involved in the emission scandal and is now trading close to 140. It appears that market participants favor the rally and are supporting it even in the hard time some of the companies face.

Chart: DAX, D1