Gold in a Downtrend

Gold is having major difficulties this month as price soared to a high of $1,337 in the beginning of November and now is trading at $1,188 with a low of $1,171. Gold bulls were caught short by the surprising reaction of market participants to Trump's Presidency. The US dollar strengthened to more than 13 year high pushing the safe haven to its February level below $1,200.

This latest move killed all the gains that were made during the year that actually made Gold the best asset to have in your portfolio in 2016. Now all Gold holders are having the worst performance in their indexes and the worst part is we still don't know what to expect until the end of the year.

We have the US rates raise in December, then in January Trump's steps into office and all this will be highly influencing the Gold market. If it turns out to be positive, then we might see Gold revisit the low of $1,049 made in 2015 and possibly go lower.  On the other hand, if Trump and Congress have differences and conflict in their views, then Gold will once again be an asset you want to have in your portfolio.

Chart: XAU/USD D1

EUR/USD Attempts To Go Higher

EUR/USD is caught in a struggle after the latest bottom at 1.0517. Since then the pair has been trying to recover and made two attempts. Although the first turned out unsuccessful, bulls managed to push price to a high of 1.0685. After that, the pair lost some of these gains and went to a low of 1.0565.

Now bulls are taking another chance to go beyond the latest high as price is currently 1.0632 with a high 1.0661. Main trend on the long-term remains bearish but in order for the trend to continue in the same direction, bears need more fundamentals, namely more economic data from the US and of course a raise in rates on 13-14 December.

Until then, price is caught in the range between 1.0660 and 1.0550. What can stir the markets today is the USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core, and later in the week we have USD ISM Manufacturing and the most important monthly data the US Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate.

Chart: EUR/USD H4

EUR/USD Slightly Higher

EUR/USD is trading a bit higher in today's early European hours. The pair went as low as 1.0518 last week and has recovered to a high of 1.0685. Current market price is 1.0652 and it appears that the pair has found some support. Finally dollar bulls can take a breather before the next move which will determine where will the price go from here.

On the one hand, the pair is now at a strong support level that goes back until the first quarter of 2015 when the EUR/USD made a record low of 1.0462. Current level could act as a catalyst and boost prices to higher levels as this time has been anticipated by Euro bulls.

On the other hand, Trump's presence in the US future seems to be stronger than the technical level reached as Dollar bulls are having the best time of this year so far. Goldman Sachs also predicts further dollar appreciation in the near future.

Whatever happens, current times are very uncertain and the best trading strategy now is capital preservation.

Chart: EUR/USD W1

ActivTrades Event Follow Up: Tools and Trading Setups | Webinar Review

The Financial Summit hosted by ActivTrades took place on November 19th and was probably the best trading event for the year. A lot of experts and analysts took part to make this a memorable day. What's even more important is the lessons we took home after the event.

In light of this, professional trader Paul Wallace explained in a webinar yesterday how to use the ActivTrades exclusive tools available to clients.

He talked about how we can take advantage of the opportunities presented by the following exclusive tools:

SmartOrder and SmartCalculator, designed to manage risk;

SmartTemplate, SmartForecast, SmartPattern, Pivot Points Indicator designed to show trading signals;

SmartLines designed for automated execution;

All of these tools are very valuable to any type of investor or trader, as they can reduce the level of stress as well as the level of uncertainty.

For those of you who missed the event, it will be uploaded HERE.

To stay up to date with the latest webinars visit HERE.

Gold Sell Off

Gold is having a terrible last quarter of 2016. The precious metal had the best first three months beating all other markets and assets when it rose more than 30%, and close to 40% in the third quarter. Now, the situation does not look so optimistic as Gold has been going the other way since July.

Numerically speaking, Gold rose from $1,047 to $1,284 in first quarter, then stalled for a couple of months and skyrocketed on June 24 when the NFP's and Jobs report returned 50,000 jobs created. This was the decisive factor that pushed price to year high of $1,375.

Since then, bulls have not been able to ignite a spark and Gold has been suffering the consequences. The price is down to $1,181 and is currently trading at $1,186. The main factor now is Trump's Presidency and his plans for growth, economic prosperity, new jobs and rising wages.

All of that is, of course, yet to be revealed and if something is not according to plan, the US economy will react and Gold's price will be affected.

So, to all the Gold bugs out there - worry not for the best days of Gold are yet to come.

Chart: XAU/USD D1

Sterling Drops Against Main Competitors

The UK economy seems to be sailing along with not too many challenges. However, what has to happen next is quite a difficult cocktail for the government to manage. With that said, the Sterling tried to gain some strength over the last couple of weeks, but lately it has been very tough for the British currency to outperform its peers.

The Sterling is down this week against its main counterparts - the US dollar and the Yen. GBP/JPY reached a high of 138.82 yesterday and is now trading around 137.58, a sharp drop in less than a day. GBP/USD traded at 1.2512 and is now gravitating towards 1.2408.

Scheduled for later today we have the UK Autumn Budget Statement that can cause volatility in the market as well as Friday's GDP numbers.

Chart: GBP/JPY D1

EUR/USD Higher

EUR/USD is trading moderately higher in today's session after a few days of very volatile and uncertain movements. The pair is now steadily headed higher going from a low of 1.0569 to a high of 1.0649. Currently market price is 1.0642 and it appears that bulls are trying to bring a change onto the stage.

If the pair breaks first resistance at 1.0650 and closes above it then we have a good chance to see move to the upside this week.

It is possible that what the market is doing now can be considered "buy the rumor, sell the fact" in regard to the anticipated rate raise in December. If this is the case, then the positive reaction in the US dollar has already been conducted and now traders and investors are easing off the pressure and taking profits.

On the other hand, if EUR/USD goes back again below 1.06 this would mean the end of the bullish attempts to go over 1.0650 and bears would again be dominating.

Chart: EUR/USD H4

USD at 13.5 Year High

At this stage uncertainty is huge. No one knows what would happen next. A brutal raise in nominal rates means that real rates have not increased substantially. According to Unicredit the US dollar is overvalued and they don't think it will strengthen much more.

The USD Index was pushed up to 101.27, hitting the highest level in more than 13.5 years.

With the 13.5 year high one thing is considered a "done deal" now - The Fed has to raise rates in December.

On the other hand, the Euro is currently undervalued as growth in the Eurozone has maintained some momentum and expectations are that the Euro will begin to appreciate with the coming Eurozone elections.

Speculators anticipate parity with the rest of the major currencies, namely Euro, Sterling and Swiss Franc.

As of now, the EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.0623 with a low of 1.0569.

Chart: EUR/USD D1

EUR/USD 11-Month Low

EUR/USD is trading at an 11-month low today. The sell off started with Trump's Presidency and has been the main factor driving the depreciation of the pair. So far, EUR/USD lost some 700 pips since the Election day going from 1.13 to 1.06 in less than 10 days. This has been the most drastic downfall since February 2015.

Current levels are the lowest since December last year when price was at a low of 1.0523. Today the lowest we have is 1.0581 and the pair has been having difficulties since that low.

EUR bulls find it very hard to bounce off current levels even though this level is a very strong support that marks a triple bottom in the long-term.

The responsibility for the sharp drop goes to FED Chair Janet Yellen who stated yesterday that a raise is very likely to happen in December. Market participants understood this as a "done deal" and hurled to the US Dollar.

If that level does not hold the bearish pressure then the next one is seen at multi year low at 1.0462 made in March 2015.

Chart: EUR/USD D1

USD/CAD Correction

USD/CAD started the week off the right foot but since then it's been on the downturn for good. The pair reached 1.3592 on Monday and then bears took over and pushed the price to a low of 1.3402 yesterday. Currently, price is 1.3414 and it looks like it will keep depreciating. First support zone is seen at 1.3388 and if this is taken out bears might go for the home run at 1.3030.

Today's news will determine the winner in the current market situation as we are expecting the US Consumer Price Index. For tomorrow, the CAD Consumer Price Index will also play a role in forming the next move of the pair.

Since the major low of 1.2459 the pair has been very difficult to trade as there are multiple highs and lows day in and day out. The stagnation will most likely continue at least until the end of the year.

Chart: USD/CAD D1

USD/JPY Rallies

USD/JPY continues its rally that started on the day Donald Trump was elected for President of the US. On that day the pair registered a sharp drop to 101.19 and then rapidly recovered. Since then the pair has gained some impressive weight on the bull shoulders with a high today of 109.75. The pair seems very determined to visit the resistance level at 110.30 and considering the strength we've been witnessing, this could happen even today.

However, there are only minor challenges along the way that the US bulls must conquer, namely minor resistances at current market price 109.75 and 110. If these levels are taken over, 110.30 seems a sure deal.

Overall, USD.JPY is rallying because of certain factors that happen to coincide - the pair is already above the 200SMA and it has formed a strong bottom that plays a role in the sharp gains and also, fundamentally, chances for a rate hike are now above 90% thanks to future President Trump's win in the Elections.

Chart: USD/JPY D1

Gold Calmer After The Storm

During the Presidential Election day Gold saw a boost in prices that led to a high of $1,337. Top forecasters predicted that a Trump victory would rapidly depreciate the US dollar which would results in rising Gold prices. In the end of the day, however, Trump won and the US dollar rallied, bringing down all gains in the Gold market.

So Gold went from $1,337 to $1,267 in that day and has been depreciating since. Yesterday Gold made a low of $1,212 and has recovered moderately to current market price of $1,226. It appears that Gold has found some support and now bears will take a break. 

Strong support is seen at $1,200 which will form a double bottom and has the potential to sustain the bear rally and give bulls the chance to buy at good levels. If that support is broken Gold is likely to continue falling due to major factors contributing, namely the 92% chance of rising rates in December, price being below the 200SMA and the strengthening US economy. 

Chart: XAU/USD D1

EUR/USD Lower

EUR/USD is trading lower in today's session. The week is starting very positively for the USD bulls as they are pushing the price even lower than last week's low of 1.0830. Currently, price is 1.0756 with a low of 1.0728.

The latest rally in the US dollar is due to the optimistic look of Trump's policy regarding economic growth. Equities rally and the currency is strengthening as President-elect boosts confidence in the future of the US economy. Donald Trump steps into power in January and until then he must form his administration which will be responsible for taking care of all duties of the Presidential institution.

Traders and investors appear to be optimistic as the market is handling this transition very well so far. Gold is down to multi-month low at $1,212, Silver also registered a major blow that drove price down to $17.07.

Chart: EUR/USD D1

Working With Stop Losses and Take Profits | Webinar Review

We all know that Stop loss and Take profit orders are an essential part of any trader's toolkit. How important exactly they are became clear in yesterday's webinar by ActivTrades - Working With Stop Losses and Take Profits. The webinar was hosted by guest speaker Paul Wallace - professional trader with over 22 years of experience. 

The great thing about Stop loss and Take profit is that they are an indispensable risk management instrument. They allow for great control and certainty when it comes to potential losses or profits. 

One of the biggest traders of all time, Paul Tudor Jones, often talks about how using stop loss is one of his key elements to success. Personally, I have adopted his strategy and also use tight stops which allows me to never have troubles sleeping. 

ActivTrades did a great job with this webinar. As you know they have a schedule packed with great titles in their webinar section, just click HERE to visit. 

In case you missed it you can watch it in the Archives section.

USD/JPY Higher After Election Night

USD/JPY started the Election day very uncertain and when the initial results were published with Trump in the lead the pair took a nose dive. Due to the hype around Trump not having a clear vision about the economy and financial stability, the market interpreted the news negatively and the US dollar depreciated resembling the Brexit crash of June 24.

However, the markets quickly digested the fact the the newly elected President of the United States is named Donald J Trump and the US dollar recovered. Today, the situation is even better than before the election. The Greenback is going strongly to the upside as all USD pairs are feeling the boost.

More specifically, the USD/JPY. Today the pair has gained new points going from a low of 101.17 yesterday to a high of 106.92. Current market price is 106.50 and the pair looks very bullish still.

The Election caused a lot of volatility and the effect could be still be felt around the global market.

Chart: USD/JPY M15

Donald Trump is President of the United States

The American people have spoken - and the American people have elected their new leader, Donald Trump. The whole campaign did not look good for Trump, he lost all three debates, did not receive the support of current US President Obama and was not taken seriously by the media and research agencies.

During the Election day it looked good for Hillary Clinton but near the end all changed. All changed utterly as Trump won Florida, Ohio, North Carolina. No media or agency expected the outcome of this Election and now the world digests the historic result, i.e. Donald Trump is the 45th President of the United States.

Hillary Clinton refused to make a public appearance but she did give a call to Trump to congratulate him and concede the election.

The markets reacted sharply to initial results that showed Trump is in the lead, the US dollar depreciated rapidly imitating the  Brexit result but now everything is back to prior-election day levels. A classic buy the rumor, sell the fact scenario.

It will be an exciting 4 year period.

EUR/USD Consolidating Ahead of US Election

EUR/USD is consolidating today ahead of the US Presidential Election. Less than 10 hours left until the United States are officially into the Election night. Market participants are awaiting the results at the end of the Election day when it would be clear which one of the two candidates - either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton would lead the way to the next four years of politics, economy and social welfare of the USA.

EUR/USD is not doing anything interesting so far today with price gravitating towards 1.1050 - a level that would most likely remain until the results come out. Have in mind that if Donald Trump wins, markets have a higher chance of high unpredicted volatility than if Hillary Clinton won the election.

Today's strategy would be to preserve your capital as risk remains high and heavy positions are not advisable due to the unpredictable consequences of the election on the market.

Chart: EUR/USD H4

AUD/USD At Resistance

AUD/USD is trading at resistance at current market price. The pair reached a high of 0.7708 and succumbed to lower levels but still in the resistance zone. It is unknown as of now whether the pair is headed to higher levels, but it is worth noticing that AUD bulls have been having a good rally for the past few months going from a low of 0.7145 to a high of 0.7755 which is very close to current market price of 0.7691.

Since it bottomed, AUD/USD is trading in a coil formation which appears to be nearing its end. The camp that pushes harder would be the winner and although bulls might have the upper hand for they have been building momentum for months now, bears need one bad news to destroy everything created by the bulls.

No major news are expected from AU side, on the other hand the US Presidential Elections have the potential to bring chaos into any US pair, AUD/USD not excluded.

Chart: AUD/USD H4

AUD/CAD At Short-Term Resistance

AUD/CAD is trading to the upside since it last touched 0.9810. The pair has been in an uptrend for more than a month and is only now showing signs of overbuying. A possible change to the other direction can be expected today as we await the CAD Jobs report scheduled for later today.

If the report is positive we will see the pair move down which would confirm the technical indication of a bearish move in the short-term. On the other hand, if we witness a disappointing data, AUD bulls will have the easy task to push prices above the short-term resistance when CAD bulls have no fundamentals to rely upon.

First support is seen at 1.0230 while first resistance is 1.0305.

The Australian dollar has been having a strong rally against all competitors for the past 2 months relying upon strong fundamentals and stable economic conditions. This makes it one of the strongest currencies to own in the last quarter of the year.

Chart: AUD/CAD H4

EUR/USD Higher

EUR/USD has been trading to the upside since Oct 25 when the pair reached a low of 1.0851 and bulls took over. Since then, EUR/USD has been seeing very good momentum to the upside making a high of 1.1125 earlier today. This appears to be happening when the Fed is indicating a non-raise year, ie the interest rates would most likely be left unchanged.

A lot of speculation still dominates the market that traders and investors are positive about the raise, but the data show a decrease in the percentage of a raise as the Fed needs more evidence.

The effect is a weakening US dollar. The US currency lost a good amount of its gains since last week and if US bulls should continue their rule, they need a boost from events driven data, namely a good report tomorrow.

Also, next Tuesday's elections are yet to reveal the impact over the market as participants expect different reactions from the market depending on which one of the candidates gets elected.

Chart: EUR/USD H4

Gold Shines Again

Gold is finally going higher after a few weeks of almost no volatility. The precious metal is now trading at almost a one-month high at $1,297. The move did not come as much as a surprise considering the weakening US dollar and the long consolidation it has been in for the past month.

News are out that a December raise is becoming unlikely and this impacted the US dollar causing it to lose strength over other currencies. The EUR/USD made a high of 1.1099 earlier today and is now 1.1083, USD/JPY and USD/CAD are losing their gains and it seems that investors' confidence in the US currency has been deflated.

All this takes us again to the all time safe haven - Gold. In the midst of market uncertainty Gold has performed well and this time is not an exception. Gold rose from a low of $1,241 to a high of $1,297 and is currently trading at its highest since the low.

First resistance is now seen at $1,300, second is $1,325 and major resistance is seen at $1,440.

Chart: XAU/USD D1

USD/CAD Uptrend

USD/CAD has been having a good move to the upside for the past two months going from 1.2828 to a high of 1.3433. The pair was capable of withstanding the bear attempts to bring it down and even the events on Friday did not have an impact on the bullish move.

Price is now 1.3408 as the pair is seen to be out of momentum for the past few days. The consolidation is coming to show that the trend may be exhausted and bears might have a chance. If they manage to bring it down below 1.3400 and hold it there until close, we might see a move further to the downside.

On the other hand, bulls have the upper hand as the price is already above resistance and there is still room for the momentum to push prices higher.

Important news are scheduled for today from both sides which will have an impact on the pair's future direction.

Chart: USD/CAD H4