GBP/USD Goes Down

Up until recently, the GBP/USD pair was trading at its multi-month high around 1.30-1.3050. Since last week, however, the pair has decreased in price causing it to return to the upper line of the long term trading channel.

Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2798 as bears are pushing it down to a low of 1.2774. The pair showed multiple rejections at the 1.31 level and the bear camp decided to take advantage of the low volumes. 

Main trend on the short term has shifted from bullish to bearish with first bear target at 1.2535. Main bear target is seen at the lower trend line of the trading channel resting at 1.2100. 

If bears take control over the pair, we might see the price rise to major bull target at 1.32. In order for this to happen, the news release on Friday should hint that the US dollar will continue to depreciate. 

Chart: GBP/USD H4

USD/CAD Consolidates

USD/CAD has been trading in consolidation for the past few days since price reached a high of 1.3500 last week. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3454 and it appears that both bulls and bears are trying to take control over the market.

It's important to notice that price is really close to the support zone at 1.34 which could mean that bears might attempt to push it down in order for it to reach the support.

On the other hand, bulls have their eyes on first target at 1.3540 and second target at 1.3590. What could determine the potential direction of the pair is the most anticipated news for the month, i.e. the Jobs and NFP data scheduled on Friday.

Chart: USD/CAD H4

USD/CHF Volatility

USD/CHF has been trading in a very choppy environment lately as the pair recently reached a low of 0.9691 on May 22. Now the pair is trading at 0.9765 marking a day of high volatility as price fluctuates between 0.9745 and 0.9808.

On the long term, the good news for the bulls is that the pair is back into the descending trading channel and a move to the upside might be expected. For the short term, however, price remains very unstable as market participants are now in a dispute who is going to take control over it.

If we can get a close inside the channel, we might expect the pair to gain momentum and start climbing towards first bull target at 0.9825.

If bears push the price down, first potential target would be the last low of 0.9690 and major bear target around 0.9550.

Char: USD/CHF H4

Gold Consolidates Close To Resistance

Gold has been trading in an uptrend for the past three weeks. The upward move started on May 9 when price was around $1,220. Since then, the precious metal has climbed to a high of $1,269.16 as bulls reacted strongly to the support taking advantage of the low volume and lack of selling.

Currently, Gold is trading at $1,267, a bit lower than its highest reach last week. If bulls continue on their way North, immediate resistance rests at $1,273, along a downward trendline that started in the middle of July 2016. If that level is broken, then major bull target is the $1,300 psychological level.

On the other hand, a failure to push price above the resistance would result in bears taking control over the Gold market with the intention to drag the price down and reverse the trend with first potential target at $1,245 and major target $1,230.

Char: XAU/USD H4

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EUR/USD Volatile

EUR/USD pair posted a loss on Friday causing the weekly candle to turn red and dangerously pointing downward. The pair went from a high of 1.1233 to a low of 1.1166 in a matter of hours as suddenly the bullish trend took a break and bears stepped in to turn the direction.

The weekly close is at 1.1179 and as it appears, bears might have the upped hand now as the momentum has turned from bullish to bearish. Moreover, it's been a while since we last saw a corrective wave, and the recent multiple rejections at the 1.1250 level are indicative that bulls have a hard time going beyond this resistance.

First bear target is now seen at 1.1100, while second and more anticipated is the resistance turned support at 1. 1021. Beyond that level, bears might attempt to go to 1.0900 and major support zone at 1.0600.

Chart: EUR/USD H4

EUR/GBP Above Resistance

EUR/GBP reached a high of 0.8748 today as the pair pushed through the short term resistance at 0.8720. The Euro marks yet another high as the US dollar is being neglected and investors and traders are focusing their capital in the second most traded currency.

First strong resistance now is seen at 0.8800 which marks a double top and if bears get serious about this, we might see a reversal of the two-week trend that started on May 10.

On the other hand, a continuation of the upward move above 0.8800 would put into focus the next highest high laying at 0.8865. If this is conquered, then the major resistance rests at the seven-year high at 0.93255.

It's important to notice that the price just went above the 200SMA which is a reliable signal that a consistent move to the upside is probable.

Char: EUR/GBP D1

USD/CHF Hesitates

Yesterday evening we saw price action print a doji at the completed -27.2% Fibonacci extension. This showed a D1 completion leg and lower low. The indecision at the D1 area highlighted the potential for price to show a retracement. This means that we can expect the USD/CHF pair to retrace back up to previous support turned resistance, as well as then look for price to show a rejection from the 0.98345 support turned resistance to form a lower high, and continue bearish for a new lower low.

Today we have seen price so far form a bullish bodied hammer characteristic candle stick with buying pressure. It would be best to stay out of the market and continue to watch this pair to see whether price forms a new lower high at the area of 0.98345.

Long term support is seen at 0.95, while long term resistance is seen at 1.0320.

Chart: USD/CHF D1

Staying Away From The Markets

So why do some traders say it's good to keep away from the markets?

Well when you are sitting at the computer, always watching the charts you are more likely to force trades.

By force trades I mean, trades that do not fit your plan, and because you've been watching the markets you get a feeling that it's a good trade and you should enter. When really it's not a trade that should be taken.

Watching the markets can cause other issues, which are psychological. For example exiting trades early because the market was fluctuating and gave you the feeling to exit the trade in case it goes into a loss or a further loss, or exiting a trade early to bank profit instead of trusting your plan and letting it run to your profit target.

There are many other reasons as to why watching every tick of the market is not good. You should only be checking the markets when required by your plan and this should mainly be when you know a candlestick is going to close that fits the timeframe you trade. For example, some traders enter trades from the daily timeframe so therefore they only need to check the charts when the daily candles close to see whether there is a potential opportunity. Some even do all of their analysis on the weekend meaning there is no need to be analysing the charts through the week.

GBP/USD Consolidated

GBP/USD is trading in consolidation at current market levels. The price is now 1.2982 and it seems that the pair has entered into a consolidation that is now lasting about three weeks, starting from the beginning of May.

The pair is caught between the support at 1.2900 and the resistance that has not yet been reached standing at 1.3140. If bulls manage to reach the resistance zone, this could mean a potential break and further continuation of the bullish move that started in the beginning of this year.

On the other hand, bears have the more difficult task to outperform the other camp. Given how weak the US dollar currently is, the likelihood of their success seems like a far fetched goal.

Today no major news are anticipated so we can expect a relatively calm market environment with low volatility.

Chart: GBP/USD H4

USD/JPY Lower

USD/JPY appears to have discontinued the short-term upside trend as price decreased from last week's high of 114.26 to today's low of 110.48. Despite the rapid drop in price, the USD/JPY pair remains in its uptrend long-term channel that started in the end of June last year.

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 111.17 and it seems that bears will try to test the support level resting slightly below the 200SMA at 108.40.

No major news are expected today so market participants might rely solely on technicals and price behavior in order for them to make investing and trading decisions.

Tomorrow fundamentals are also not playing a role so we can expect a silent consolidation around current levels.

Chart: USD/JPY D1

Gold Saved by Support

In the last few days we have been witnessing the ascent of Gold as the precious metal registered a climb from a low of $1,214 to a high of $1,245. The latest was made in the early trading hours of the Asian session today and now price is slightly lower at $1,242. 

With the depreciation of the US dollar, traders and investors have eyed the precious metals as diversification and safe haven. Bulls are in control currently as Gold is trading in the ascending trading channel on the medium term. First bull target is seen at $1,257 and major for the short-term is $1,275. Above that, Gold would be exposed to the bullish momentum away from the noise below $1,300. 

If, however, the US dollar starts to climb again we may see a retreat from the Gold market which could substantially lower Gold's price. Support is seen at $1,220. 

Silver is also in the green this week as price advanced from $16,04 to a high of $16.96.

Chart: XAU/USD H4

EUR/USD Close To 1.11

For the first time since the pre-election period the EUR/USD is trading close to 1.11. The pair reached a high of 1.1096 and immediately stepped down a bit to currently trade at 1.1084. The sharp move started last week when the price was close to the support line at 1.0830.

Since then, the EUR/USD made an impressive 260 points rally. Current market price is seen as potential resistance for the short to medium term outlook. The probable outcome from this situation is depreciation with enough to get the pair back into the trading channel.

Bears might attempt to push it down to levels around 1.10. Below that, short-term support is seen at 1.0830. On the other hand, with price already above resistance, bulls will try their best to keep it that way and go for potential first target at 1.1150.

Chart: EUR/USD H4

Crude Oil Posts New Gains

Crude Oil is having a strong rally this week and the previous week. The uptrend has been going on since the price went as low as 46.55 and then took off to today's high at 52.20. Crude oil is making a substantial move to the upside with almost $6 in less than two weeks.

Next on the horizon is the 200SMA that needs to be conquered in order for the bullish move to continue. The 200SMA currently rests at 51.80, which means that we need to get a close above 52 today if the bulls want to have a big chance to prolong their dominance in the Oil market.

On the other hand, bears might attempt to push the price down at current market price. If they can bring it below 52 today, then this week might turn out to be a week where correction presides. Major bears target is seen at 47.

Chart: Brent.CMD D1

GBP/JPY Taking a Breather

GBP/JPY is currently hesitating whether it should continue its move to the upside. The pair rallied from  135.60 in mid-April to a high of 148 last week. Since then, the Sterling has been taking a breather doing some correction moves and consolidation around the level of 146.70.

If the continuation continues with hints of going to the upside, first potential target is seen at 148.50, which forms a double top. If that level does not hold the bulls, second and stronger level is 150.

Well above the 200SMA, GBP/JPY has a strong momentum to the upside as the bull camp seems determined to push it higher.

The corrective wave might be expected to continue until tomorrow when the UK will release the GBP Core CPI and CPI data.

Char: GBP/JPY D1

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USD/CAD Consolidated

USD/CAD is having a strong rally that started since the pair was at support at 1.32249 just about a month ago. Today, the pair is 1.3714, marking a bull run with close to 500 points movement. Main trend on the short-term is expected to stay bullish if bulls manage to climb above the resistance at 1.38, which could be considered a double top.

On the other hand, bears might attempt to push the price down to first support zone at 1.36, second support zone at 1.3210, and major support zone at 1.30.

If they get above 1.38, then first target level is eyed at 1.3860. Technically, the pair is now in its highest point since February 2016 when the pair dived with more than 2500 points from 1.48 to below 1.25.

Partially, the appreciation of the pair is due to the depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Although, the US dollar also had its weak points recently, the USD bulls were able to sustain the momentum in the pair and keep it going up.

Char: USD/CAD H4

The Yen Depreciating

The Yen has been going down against all its peers lately. The EUR/YEN pair is rallying since mid-April when price was a bit below 115. Then the French elections gave some boost to the Euro causing the pair to gap open in the end of April.

Currently, EUR/YEN is trading at 124.20 and although it made a minor move down yesterday, bulls have successfully managed to put it back up to the latest high at 124.50.

If the last high is broken, the pair would most likely continue to first bull target at 125.00. It is expected that bears will try to take control over it and make a corrective wave which could cause the pair to reduce in price to first probable target at 120.00.

The pair has made a great rally going about 1000 points in less than a month. Currently, the levels are a decisive factor for the future progress of the pair.

Chart: EUR/YEN H4

USD/JPY Rally Continues

USD/JPY is on its way to conquer new highs. The pair reacted strongly bullishly to the bounce off of the 200SMA in mid-April when it reached a low of 108.13 and has been appreciating since then. It is now trading above 114 for the first time since mid-March.

If the bulls keep on pushing the pair, the first target is seen at 115.50 which has the potential to form a double top and put in motion the bear instincts to short the asset.

If that level is broken, then the next one is seen at 117, which falls on the upper trendline of the downtrend trading channel. This level would be harder to breach as it has stopped the bulls multiple times.

Recently, the US dollar has been showing signs of strengthening surprisingly right after the French elections when market participants expected the Euro to dominate the currency market.

Chart: USDJPY D1

EUR/USD After the French Election

The EUR/USD pair opened with a gap again in the opening seconds of the trading session as traders and investors saw a new opportunity to go long based on the results of the French elections. The elected President is Emmanuel Macron with 66.1% of the votes.

The initial reaction in the EUR/USD was a sharp appreciation to a high of 1.1020, highest since the Presidential elections in the United States on Nov 9.

What's surprising for most market participants is that the positive reaction in the Euro did not last long. The effect lasted just a few hours before the pair started to depreciate. EUR/USD is now 1.0928 and it looks like the momentum has been lost.

What's needed now is fresh news such as weak US data or strong EU data in order for the pair to continue climbing above 1.10.

Chart: EUR/USD H4

USD/CHF Lower

USD/CHF reached a low yesterday at 0.9858 as bears were actively selling the pair on rumors that the FED is preparing yet another rate hike in June. The pair reached its latest high at 1.0107 in the beginning of April and it has been depreciating since then.

Currently, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9883, a bit higher than yesterday's low but still in the downtrend that started in early April.

If the pair continues to be dominated by bears, first level could be expected at 0.9850, then the potential double bottom comes at 0.9813.

USD/CHF is having a hard time depreciating as the move down comes in a very choppy momentum with a lot of sideways trading. Bears would need more fundamentals that can back up the bearish outlook.

Chart: USD/CHF H4

Latest NFP's and Market Reaction

The latest NFP and Unemployment data is out:

USD Unemployment Rate (APR)

Actual: 4.4%
Survey: 4.6%
Previous: 4.5%

USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (APR) comes in better than expected.
Actual: 211k
Survey: 190k
Previous: 79k

The aforementioned data was not enough to drive investors interest back to the US dollar and after the news release all USD pairs ended up with little to no change. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading higher than pre-news. Price is now 1.0989, a level marking the weekly high.

If the pair closes around current market price, next week could turn out to be a continuation of the upside move in the EUR/USD.

Above 1.10 would be an indication that market participants are drifting away from the US currency in regards to the rumors about a rate hike in June.

Silver Bullish Cypher Pattern

Silver has been trading to the downside in the past few weeks going from a high of 18.64 to yesterday's low of 16.37. What's more interesting is that for the past 140 days the precious metal has been creating a formation called bearish cypher pattern.

The pattern is still in process, but we are very close to verifying it. According to the pattern, the price should go just about 0.618 in the midmove and then create a quick move to the upside. The move ended in the middle of April and then the downward move started.

Currently, we are just a few points shy of validating the pattern. Silver needs to go to 16.25 in order for the pattern to be confirmed. Should this occur, heavy buying could be the market participants' response.

Right now we are at 16.47, a bit higher than yesterday's low, but still in the area of completing the formation.

Chart: XAG/USD H4

USD/JPY Reached Resistance

USD/JPY is currently at a crossroad between breaking the downward trend and confirming it. The pair is now trading at 112.78 which marks the resistance level on the medium term, namely, the trend that started in the beginning of January. Since then, the USD/JPY pair has been going South as price is obediently trading in a descending channel.

What traders and investors now anticipate is whether the line would be broken. A break above 113 would put some pressure on bears as this could be a possible discontinuation of the trend and the formation of a new uptrend move.

On the other hand, if price remains in the channel, bears would attempt to bring it down to potential target at 110.10, second target is expected at 108 and major short-term target is 107.

Chart: USD/JPY H4

AUD/CAD Met Resistance and Gave Way To Bears

AUD/CAD met the resistance level at 1.0317 this morning before the European session opened. The pair immediately and gracefully retreated from the resistance zone and is now trading slightly below it at 1.0285.

Bears will try to take control over it now and push it further down. First potential target zone is eyed around 1.0250 which would be considered a prior pivot point if we can get a bounce off of it.

If that level does not hold, major bear target on the short-term is expected at 1.0100. This would be considered the potential bounce point where bulls will try to sustain the uptrend channel.

However, a break below this point would invalidate the upward trend and put more pressure on the pair.

Chart: AUD/CAD H4